In an ira v ilectṛl fragmnteśn, Lebr mst lrn t imbres pǎrśẹrñ
(Transcription of a Guardian article of 28 April 2022)
Ɖ Frenć ilex́n śoud hǎ ilectṛl sistmz śep poḷtics. In ɖ YC, abandnñ frst-past-ɖ-post cd b trnsforṃtiv
Martin Cetl, Ʈrzde 28 Epril 2022
Y hv got t hand it t Charles de Gaulle. Ɖ ilectṛl sistm h crietd fr Frans’z Fifʈ Rpublic hz std ɖ tst v tîm. Mor ɖn six decedz on, ɖs wīc’s riilex́n v De Gaulle’z lêtist s’xesr, Emmanuel Macron, z a rmîndr ɖt ɖ ptiklaṛtiz v ilectṛl sistmz cn set ɖ trmz v a neśn’z poḷtics mor lastñli ɖn w smtmz alǎ. Ɖr’z a mesij fr Britn ɖr tù, bt w wl cm on t ɖt.
De Gaulle’z consttyśn, cnstructd btwn 1958 n 1962, emd at tū golz in ptiklr. Ɖ frst wz t impǎr De Gaulle n hiz s’xesrz t guvn az xektiv prezidnts, imbodiyñ ẃt ɖ jenṛl’z bîogṛfr Jūłn Jacsn cōld “a srtn îdīa v Frans”. Ɖ secnd em wz t cīp ɖ Frenć left, n ɖ Coḿnist parti in ptiklr, ǎt v pǎr fr az loñ az poṣbl.
Ɖ sistm wrct wel fr mor ɖn tū decedz, ispeṣ́li ẃl ɖ impirịsli caṛzmatic De Gaulle wz stl alîv, bfr François Mitterrand deftli rīśept ɖ left ẃl ɖ coḿnists slid intu hisṭri. Sins Mitterrand’z ira, hvr, bʈ ɖ old left n ɖ old rît hv fragmntd intu multipl smōlr partiz. Yt De Gaulle’z ilectṛl sistm wz stl r’bust inuf ɖs wīc t dspać Frans’z xtrim rît vri ifctivli, n fr ɖ ʈrd tîm sins ɖ mleńm. Chapeau t ɖ jenṛl fr ɖt.
Mć v ɖ asesmnt v ɖ 2022 ilex́n hz bn rɖr grujñ abt Macron’z vicṭri. It hz consntretd on hiz prsnl alūfnis, on ɖ ic̣nomic n sośl probḷmz ahd, on ɖ dclîn in hiz mjoṛti sins 2017, n on ɖ 41.5% śer aćivd bî Marine Le Pén in ɖ secnd rǎnd. Ɖz r importnt ʈñz. Ɖ naśnl-asmbli ilex́nz in Jūn wl b mć mesịr. Bt ɖ jujmnts on ɖ preẓdnśl contest unḍple bʈ ɖ rǒl v ɖ Gaullist consttyśn itslf n v Macron’z s’xes in masṭrñ it, smʈñ ẃć iludd hiz tū prīdisesrz, Nicolas Sarkozy n François Hollande.
Macron’z riilex́n śoz ɖt De Gaulle’z sistm stl hz gas in ɖ tanc. Hiz 28% vot in ɖ frst rǎnd on 10 Epril wz at ɖ upr end v ɖ frst-rǎnd scorz aćivd bî most rīsnt Frenć preẓdnśl victrz, ɖo a wrld awe fṛm De Gaulle’z ǒn 45% in ɖ frst rǎnd in 1965. In olmst eni uɖr dmocṛsi, Macron’z 17-pônt marjin v vicṭri ovr Le Pén in ɖ secnd rǎnd wd b rgardd az spectaklr. Bt ɖ rzults obskr ẃt z roñ wɖ ɖ sistm.
Ɖ tū-rǎnd ilectṛl mandet rmenz De Gaulle’z ambivḷnt leġsi t Frenć poḷtics. Hiz consttyśn gvz prezidnts an oʈoṛti ɖt z bʈ riyl (bcz it pṛdysz a clir winr) n iluẓri (bcz most ppl vot fr smwn els or d’nt vot at ol). Ɖ comḅneśn v ɖt mixt mandet n xektiv pǎr svîvz – fr nǎ. Yt it z an incrisñli unstebl wn, ispeṣ́li in a cuntri wɖ Frans’z vigṛs tṛdiśn v strītpoḷtics. Ɖ sistm gvz a vôs t ɖ dvrs p’liticl stansz caṛcṭristic v eni modn dmocṛsi, ẃl olso cuṿrñ ɖm ovr.
Ilectṛl fragmnteśn z nǎ an imbedd fīćr v mni 21st-snć̣ri dmocṛsiz. Ɖ dvîd in ɖ frst rǎnd v Frans’z preẓdnśl ilex́nz z lîc mni similr wnz amñ tde’z Yṛpiyn ilectṛts. Last yir’z Jrmn ilex́n wz a ptiklrli noṭbl ces. Topicli, it olso berz cmparisn wɖ ɖ dvîd in ɖ run-up t Norɖn Îrḷnd’z crūśl asmbli ilex́n nxt wīc.
Mni ppl r stl tmtd t trīt poḷtics az a batl btwn a larj parti v ɖ left n a larj parti v ɖ rît. Mni facts n figrz b’lai ɖs. In Frans, ɖ for strongist finiśrz on 10 Epril capćrd 28%, 23%, 22% n 7% v ɖ vot rspctivli. In Jrṃni last yir, ɖ top for hd 26%, 24%, 15% n 13%. In Norɖn Îrḷnd (ẃr ɖ dvîdz r nt mirli left-rît), ɖ lêtist poulz śo ɖ for strongist partiz r Sinn Féin on 26%, Deṃcratic Yńnists 19%, Alayns 16% n Ulstr Yńnists 13%.
F Norɖn Îrḷnd wz ilectñ a prezidnt undr ɖ Frenć tū-rǎnd sistm, ɖs wd mīn ɖr wd b a secnd-rǎnd run-of btwn Miśél O’Nīl v Sinn Féin n Jefri Donldsn v ɖ DYP. Ɖt’s nvr gwñ t hapn, forćṇtli fr Norɖn Îrḷnd, bcz it wd fyl a hoļi secterịn dnamic. Bt it iḷstrets ɖ inbilt wìcnis v eni ilectṛl sistm, sć az Frans’z, ẃć trnzlets mnoṛtis’port in ɖ frst rǎnd intu a mjoṛterịn mandet in ɖ secnd.
Norɖn Îrḷnd’z vri dlibṛtli dz nt d ɖs. It z rūtd instd in ɖ pǎrśẹrñ prínsiplz n pracṭcaḷtiz v ɖ 1998 Gd Frîde agrīmnt. Ɖs mīnz ɖt Sinn Féin’z xpctd frst-ples finiś on 5 Me wd in riaḷti b a vicṭri v onli a liṃtd cnd, olbiit wn wɖ hedlîn-nyz valy wrldwîd n inorṃs simbolic mīnñ. Ɖt a teritri ɖt wz crietd 101 yirz ago sṗsificli t cut itslf adrift fṛm Îriś rpublic̣nizm śd nǎ ilect a frst ministr fṛm ɖt sem rpublicn tṛdiśn z a mîlston in enwn’z lanḡj.
In ɖoz srcmstansz, ɖo, ɖ ćansz v ɖ DYP agriyñ t noṃnet a depyti frst ministr t wrc alñsd O’Nīl az frst ministr r rmot. Ɖ sem gz fr ɖ posbiḷti v an rli reḟrendm on Îriś yniḟceśn. It z mć mor lîcli ɖt ɖ fełr v ɖ tū mn partiz t wrc tgɖr (bʈ v ɖm me lūz śer v ɖ vot sins ɖ last contest in 2017) wl hesn ɖ rtrn v d’rect rūl fṛm Lundn. F ɖ YC guvnmnt olso średz ɖ Norɖn Îrḷnd proṭcol, az Lord Frost rjd it t d in a spīć on Wnzde, pǎrśẹrñ wl agn b left hî n drî.
Ilectṛl sistmz matr. Jrṃni, Frans n Norɖn Îrḷnd iḷstret sm v ɖ difṛnt wez ɖs wrcs. Bt ɖe r nt unyźl. Ilectṛl sistmz d nt onli rflect poḷtics; ɖe olso śep ɖ we poḷtics z cnductd. Ɖs gz fr Britn tù. Ɖ frst-past-ɖ-post sistm rūtīnli trnz an ilectṛl mnoṛti intu a cnstitẏnsi vicṭri or a parḷmntri mjoṛti. It z part v ɖ rīzn ẃ ǎr poḷtics lcs n sǎndz ɖ we it dz. N it z incrisñli indifnsbl in ɖ pluṛlistic p’liticl clîṃt v ɖ 21st snć̣ri.
Britn’z nxt jenṛl ilex́n me rtrn anɖr huñ parḷmnt, in ẃć ɖ ilectṛt vots fr ćenj bt dz nt gv eni wn parti ɖ mandet t guvn. Rplesmnt v ɖ frst-past-ɖ-post sistm wl nvr b a big dorstep iśu. Bt it wd b a trnsforṃtiv act fr Britn, n wn ɖt a mnoṛti Lebr guvnmnt cd dlivr. Ɖs cuntri’z damijd dmocṛsi z in nīd v its ǒn form v pǎrśẹrñ. It wd b a hyj step twdz crietñ any a srtn îdīa v Britn.
