Cmpytrmodlz hv prīvịsli indcetd a mas dîbac v ɖ Aṃzn z poṣbl, bt ɖ ny anaḷsis z best on riyl-wrld saṭlît obẓveśnz ovr ɖ past ʈri decedz.

Novl sttisticl anaḷsis śoz ɖt mor ɖn 75% v ɖ untućt forist hz lost stbiḷti sins ɖ rli 2000z, mīnñ it tecs longr t rcuvr aftr drǎts n wîldfîrz.

Ɖ gretist los v stbiḷti z in eriaz closr t farmz, rodz n ŕbn eriaz n in rījnz ɖt r bcmñ drîr, sjstñ ɖt forist dstrux́n n globl hītñ r ɖ cōz. Ɖz factrz “me olrdi hv pśt ɖ Aṃzn clos t a criticl ʈreśhold v renforist dîbac”, ɖ sayntists cnclud.

Ɖ studi dz nt inebl a pridix́n v ẃn ɖ tipñpônt cd b rīćt. Bt ɖ rsrćrz wornd ɖt bî ɖ tîm ɖ triġrñ v ɖ tipñpônt cd b dtctd, it wd b tù lêt t stop it.

Wns trigrd, ɖ renforist wd trnsform t grasland ovr a fy decedz at most, rlisñ hyj amǎnts v carbn n axeḷretñ globl hītñ frɖr.

Tipñpônts on a planitri scel r amñ ɖ gretist firz v clîṃtsayntists, az ɖe r irivrsbl on hymn tîmscelz. In 2021, ɖ sem sttisticl tecnīc rvild wornñsînz v ɖ c’laps v ɖ Gulfstrīm n uɖr ci Atlantic cuṛnts, wɖ “an olmst cmplit los v stbiḷti ovr ɖ last snć̣ri”.

A śutdǎn v ɖz cuṛnts wd hv caṭstrofic consiqnsz arnd ɖ wrld, dsruptñ monsūnrenz n indenjrñ Antartic îs śīts.

Anɖr rīsnt studi śoud ɖt a sgnificnt part v ɖ Grīnḷnd îs śīt z on ɖ brinc v a tipñpônt, ẃć wd līd t 7 mītrz v sìlevl rîz ovr tîm.

“Mni rsrćrz hv ʈiyrîzd ɖt an Aṃzn tipñpônt cd b rīćt, bt ǎr studi pṛvîdz vîtl impiricl evidns ɖt w r aproćñ ɖt ʈreśhold,” sd Pṛf. Niklas Boers, at ɖ Tecnicl Yṇvrṣti v Ḿnic in Jrṃni.

“Siyñ sć a rziłnslos in obẓveśnz z wuriyñ. Ɖ Aṃzn renforist storz hyj amǎnts v carbn ɖt cd b rlist in ɖ ces v īvn parśl dîbac.”

Ɖ rsrć, publiśt in ɖ jrnl Nećr Clîṃtćenj, xamind saṭlîtdeta on ɖ amǎnt v vejteśn in mor ɖn 6,000 gridsélz acrs ɖ untućt Aṃzn fṛm 1991 t 2016.

Ɖe faund ɖt in ɖ past 20 yirz eriaz impactd bî drǎts or fîrz tc sgnificntli longr t rcuvr ɖn bfr. Ɖs z a ci sîn v incrisñ instbiḷti bcz it śoz ɖ prosesz v resṭreśn r gtñ wìcr.

Drîr eriaz v ɖ forist lost mor stbiḷti ɖn wetr wnz. “Ɖs z alarmñ, az ɖ IPCĆ [Inṭguvnmntl Panl on Clîṃtćenj] modlz pṛjct an oṿol drayñ v ɖ Aṃzn rījn in rspons t globl wormñ,” Boers sd.

Eriaz closr t hymn dstrux́n v ɖ forist olso bcem mor unstebl. Triz r crūśl in pṛdysñ ren, so félñ ɖm t clir land fr bīf n soi pṛdux́n criets a viśs srcl v drîr cndiśnz n mor trīlos.

Anɖr studi in 2021, best on deta fṛm hundṛdz v smōl-plein flîts, śoud ɖ Aṃzn nǎ imits mor carbndîoxîd ɖn it abzorbz, mostli bcz v fîrz.

Bt Boers sd ɖ deta indcetd ɖt ɖ tipñpônt hz nt yt bn crost: “So ɖr’z hop.” Pṛf. Tim Lentn at Xitr Yṇvrṣti in ɖ YC, a co-oʈr v ɖ studi, sd: “It s’ports eḟts t rvrs dīfoṛsteśn n degṛdeśn v ɖ Aṃzn t gv it bac sm rziłns agnst ongwñ clîṃtćenj.”

Cris Jǒnz, at ɖ Met Ofis Hadli Sntr in ɖ YC, n nt part v ɖ studitīm, sd: “Ɖs rsrć adz cmpelñ evidns ɖt clîṃtćenj z a risc nǎ, n ɖt ɖz svir n irivrsbl impacts cd bcm a riaḷti. W hv a naro windo v oṗtyṇti t tec rjnt ax́n.

“Ɖ wuriyñ cncluźn [v ɖ studi] fits wɖ uɖr rīsnt rsrć on incrist trīmortaḷti, incrist fîrz, n rdyst rījnl carbn sncs. Ɖ IPCĆ rport ǎt last wīc asest ɖt riscs v larj scel snğlr ivnts, sć az Aṃzn dîbac, r nǎ closr ɖn evr.”

Bernardo Flores, at ɖ Fedṛl Yṇvrṣti v Santa Catarina in Bṛzil, sd: “Ɖ studi śoz ɖt olɖo ɖ forist me sīm fîn, wɖ its norml strucćr n bîoḍvrṣti, intrnl prosesz r olrdi ćenjñ, sîḷntli, rdysñ ɖ sistm’z cpaṣti t psist in ɖ loñ run. Ɖ aproć yzd z inṭrestñ bcz it rvilz rli-wornñ signlz v ɖz ćenjz.”

Flores’z rsrć rvild ɖt s’vānaz wr xpandñ at ɖ hart v ɖ Aṃzn bcz v wîldfîrz.

Ɖ guvnmnt v Bṛzil’z prezidnt, Jair Bolsonaro, hz bn harśli criṭsîzd fr incuṛjñ mor dīfoṛsteśn, ẃć sōrd bî 22% in ɖ yir t Nvmbr, ɖ hîist levl sins 2006.

Boers sd: “It’s riyli compḷcetd t se ẃt’s gwñ t b frst: rīćñ a tipñpônt bî [los v stbiḷti] v ɖ naćṛl vejteśnsistm, or jst ɖ bldozrz rīćñ ɖ forist.”