Hǎ cn Jecb Rīz-Mog fînd ‘Brexit oṗtyṇtiz’? Ɖe d’nt xist
(Transcription of an article published in the Guardian on 11 February 2022)
It z incrisñli clir ɖt Brexit z dwñ inorṃs damij t Britn’z icoṇmi. N fr ẃt, xacli?
Joṇʈn Frīdḷnd, Frîde 11 Febrri 2022
Jecb Rīz-Mog rmîndz m v a cipr. A vri sṗsific cipr, restñ on a plastic pilo v îs, ẃć intrudd intu ɖ public conśsnis bac in 2019, ẃn Boris Jonsn hld it aloft, pṛclemñ it az an xampl v ɖ absrd, petifogñ rūlz impozd bî Bruslz on ɖ yomntredrz v Britn. Naćṛli, Jonsn’z clemz fél apart on inspx́n. Ɖr wz no Yṛpiyn d’rectiv mandetñ a cŭśn v îs fr ɖ slīpñ fiś. On ɖ contrri, ɖ îspilo wz dmandd bî a Britiś rūl, drwn p bî Britiś ofiślz. Nʈñ t d wɖ ɖ YY.
Ɖ episod cem bac t m ẃn Rīz-Mog, nyli apôntd ministr fr Brexit oṗtyṇtiz n guvnmnt ifiśnsi, apild t rīdrz v ɖ Sún t rait in n tel him “v ENI peti old YY reğleśn ɖt śd b aboliśt”. Ɖt’s bcz Jonsn’z cipr iḷstretd nt onli hiz sirịl dsoṇsti on matrz Yṛpiyn – olrdi wel-dokmntd – bt olso a gap in ɖ Brexitrz’ arsnl. Ɖt gap wz ferli wel cnsild in ɖ 2016 reḟrendmcampen, bt Rīz-Mog’z pli in ɖ Sún, lîc Jonsn’z cipr, hz xpozd it.
Hir’z hǎ it cn b îdnṭfaid. Tec ɖ Brexitrz at ɖer wrd – ɖt līvñ wz abt mor ɖn endñ Yṛpiyn iṃgreśn – n asc ɖm t nem sm uɖr rform ɖt Britn badli nīdd bt ẃć pruvd un’ćiṿbl so loñ az w rmend in ɖ YY: a sṗsific ćenj ɖt onli Brexit cd unloc. Ɖ cmitd līvr wl strugl n sputr, bfr îɖr mnṣ́nñ blu pasports or els rtritñ intu abstract nǎnz: “frīdm” or “sovṛnti”. Pres ɖm fr a concrīt, riyl-wrld beṇfit v Brexit, wn ɖt svîvz scrūṭni, n ɖe wilt. Ɖe îɖr end p mcñ smʈñ p, az Jonsn dd, or els fonñ a frend – lîc Rīz-Mog’z cōl-ǎt t Sún rīdrz.
Phps w’r biyñ unfer. Aftr ol, Jonsn z olwz telñ s ɖt Britn’z swift oʈ̇rîześn v Covid vaxīnz wz poṣbl onli bcz w wr ǎtsd ɖ YY. Xpt ɖt, tù, z fōls. Ɖ vaxīn dsiźnz wr tecn jrñ ɖ trnziśnpirịd, ẃn ɖ YC wz stl bǎnd bî YY rūlz. Ɖr wz no nīd t līv t mc ɖt hapn.
Śrli ɖr mst b smʈñ. Or z “Brexit oṗtyṇtiz” an oximōrón, on a par wɖ “Ibola upsîdz”? Ɖ tred xprt Sam Lǒ gemli ofrz ɖt, “Cnsymrz cd beṇfit fṛm ɖ YC imbresñ a pziśn az a reğletri frīlodr in ɖ medicl-dvîsz spes: bt ɖs z nt wɖt its riscs.” Wundr ẃ ɖe nvr pt ɖt on ɖ sîd v a bus.
F ɖ wrst w cd se v Brexit wz ɖt it hz’nt dlivrd eni v its promist genz, mbi w cd let it pas. Bt Brexit z inflictñ grev losz, startñ wɖ dīp ic̣nomic pen, īvn f ɖt pen hz bn wel caṃflaźd bî Covid n bî ɖ omertà impozd bî a Lebr līdrśp ɖt wd rɖr tōc abt olmst enʈñ els.
Ɖ evidns v ɖ hrt z in abundnt s’plî. On Wnzde, ɖ public-acǎnts cmiti rportd on ɖ “clir incris in costs, peprwrc n bordr dlez” ɖt Brexit hz impozd on YC bizṇsz. Ɖ nxt de it wz ɖ trn v ɖ Ofis fr Naśnl Sttistics, huz biznișrve faund ɖt mor ɖn haf v ɖ YC’z importrz n xportrz nǎ sáit adiśnl peprwrc n hayr transṗteśncosts az probḷmz, wɖ ɖoz tū iśuz ɖer bigist hedecs bî a wîd marjin. Ɖ fon-in programz hum wɖ Britiś ontṛpṛnŕz, plenti v ɖm līv̦otrz, nǎ drivn t dsper, forst t spend preśs, xōstñ aurz filñ in formz ɖe nvr yst t hv t fil in n peyñ costs ɖe nvr yst t hv t pe.
Ignor ɖ tōc v ɖ gretist groʈ sins ɖ secnd wrldwor: ɖt’s jst a fuñśn v ɖ icoṇmi hvñ c’lapst so badli in 2020. Not instd ɖ Banc v Ñgḷnd’z fōrcast v 1.25% groʈ in 2023, fōlñ t jst 1% in 2024. Devid Smiʈ, īc̣nomics editr v ɖ Súnde Tîmz n no rmonr fnatic, pts ɖt dǎn partli t Covid bt partli t ɖ “advrs fiscl consiqnsz v līvñ ɖ YY”, ẃć left ɖ cuntri “wɖ a bujithoul ɖt hz hd t b fild wɖ hayr taxz. W nǎ hv a hî-tax icoṇmi strangld bî redtep n hamprd bî tred rstrix́nz.”
Ɖ ppl hu léd s of ɖs clif cntiny t pritnd ɖt nn v ɖs z haṗnñ. In a fespām momnt in ɖ Comnz ɖs wīc, ɖ pro-Brexit MP fr Dovr, Naṭli Elfic, cmplend abt ɖ “mîlz v traficjamz” bsetñ hr cnstitẏnsi. Ɖoz r bcz v ɖ l’borịs ćecs n dlez ɖt nǎ cnfrunt loriz cmñ intu ɖ port, bt Elfic insistd ɖ jamz wr “nt bcz v Brexit bt bcz v Bruslz byrocṛsi”. Lîc mni Brexitrz, ś z ǎtrejd ɖt ẃn y līv ɖ YY, ɖ YY trīts y az f y’v left ɖ YY.
Ẃrvr y lc, it’s ɖ sem picćr. Fr ol ɖ fŕ-hat foto-ops in Mosco, Britn z no mor ɖn a bit pleyr in ɖ cuṛnt crîsis ovr Ycren. Bfr Brexit, ɖ YC wz wn v ɖ ʈri dsîsiv membrz in an ic̣nomic blóc ɖt std btwn ɖ YS n Ćîna az ɖ most pǎrfl in ɖ wrld. Ǎtsd ɖ YY, n hvñ brocn ǎr cmitmnt on oṿsìz ed n fōrsecn ɖ soft pǎr ɖt cem wɖ it, ɖ YC z struġlñ t ste reḷvnt.
Mnẃl, ɖ delic̣t consttyśnl mśīṇri ɖt cept Norɖn Îrḷnd at pīs hz bn smaśt. At ɖ sem tîm, ɖoz uɖr parts v ɖ YC ɖt wns rlaid on YY caś nǎ fes a guvnmnt ɖt hz brocn its maṇfstopromis t plug ɖ gap prīvịsli fild bî Bruslz fundz. Ɖt dprîvz Wêlz, ẃć votd t līv ɖ YY, v clos t £1bn ovr ɖ nxt ʈri yirz.
Ɖs z ẃt Rīz-Mog śd b rīdñ in hiz meilbag. Ɖt Brexit hz inflictd gret losz on ɖs cuntri; ɖt ɖ s’pozd ofsets fr ɖoz losz d’nt ofset ɖm at ol; n ɖt ɖr r nxt t no “oṗtyṇtiz” wrɖi v ɖ nem. Brexit z a ranc fełr. I unḍstand ẃ ǎr poḷtics canot yt se az mć, ɖt a dīsnt inṭvl hz t pas btwn 2016 n ɖt momnt. Bt ɖt momnt wl cm ivnć̣li – n ẃn it dz, it ʈretnz t arîv wɖ a mîti fyri.
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Joṇʈn Frīdḷnd z a Gardịn coḷmnist
