Ɖ marcits hv tecn bac cntrol: so mć fr Trus’z Brexit dluźn v sovṛnti
(Transcription of an article published in the Guardian on 14 October 2022)
Ɖs z ɖ bigist hymilieśn v Britn sins Suiz, a rmîndr ɖt no guvnmnt cn ignor riaḷti
Joṇʈn Frīdḷnd, Frîde 14 Octobr 2022
Hard t b’liv nǎ, ẃn w’r in ɖ midl v ɖ melstrom, bt wn de ɖs tù wl b ɖ past. N ẃn it z, ẃn w’r ǎt v ɖ aurli sîcodrāma – no longr stẹrñ at ɖ scrīn, woćñ Qāzi Qarteñ’z plein d an acćl U-trn in ɖ scî en route t hiz biyñ fîrd on tućdǎn, fr ɖ crîm v dwñ ẃt hiz bos wontd him t d – it me nt lc ol ɖt compḷcetd.
Historịnz wl lc bac n si a pônt v oṛjin t ɖ cuṛnt madnis, wn ɖt xplenz hǎ a ny prîm̦inistr cd si hr admiṇstreśn fōl apart in a matr v wīcs, īvn f w strugl t nem ɖt cōz ǎt lǎd rît nǎ. Ẃn ɖ txtbcs v ɖ fyćr cm t ɖ ćaptr w r livñ ʈru, in ɖ ōtm v 2022, ɖe wl start wɖ ɖ sumr v 2016: Brexit n ɖ sṗsific dluźn ɖt drouv it.
Ɖe wl pônt t ɖ obvịs impact v Britn’z dsiźn t līv ɖ Yṛpiyn Yńn, n ɖ rǒl ɖt pleid in upending a cuntri wns rnǎnd fr its stbiḷti. Ɖe mt bgin wɖ ɖ besics. Xit, ɖe wl rait, śranc ɖ YC icoṇmi ʈancs t a 5.2% fōl in GDP, a 13.7% fōl in invstmnt n a similr drop in ɖ tred in gdz. Ɖt slf-inflictd cntrax́n hlps xplen ẃ Britn flt inṭnaśnl śocs – srjñ infleśn, fr xampl – hardr ɖn most. F yr icoṇmi z smōlr, y îɖr hv t tax ppl mor t pe fr ɖ srṿsz ɖe xpct, or y cut ɖoz srṿsz, or y boro. Ɖr r no uɖr wez ǎt.
Unls y rzort t majicl ʈncñ. Ẃć brñz s t ɖ secnd cōzl cnx́n btwn ɖ crezinis v nǎ n ɖ trnñpônt v 2016. Brexit brouc ɖ linc btwn guvnns n rīzn, btwn poḷsi n evidns. Untl Brexit, poḷtiśnz onli rerli got awe wɖ dfayñ ɖ impiricl facts or eḷmntri lojic. Bt in 2016 ɖe pritndd ɖt a cuntri cd wìcn its tredñtîz t its nirist nebrz n gt rićr, ẃć z lîc seyñ y cn step in a baʈ v îs n gt wormr. Wns ɖ tbu on majicl ʈncñ wz brocn, wns fanṭsi bcem a Cnsrṿtiv habit, Trusonomics bcem inevitbl – smîlñli insistñ ɖt y cd cut taxz fr ɖ rićist, mc “abṣlutli” no cuts t public srṿsz n cntrol borowñ, ol at ɖ sem tîm.
Bt ɖr z a les obvịs we in ẃć Brexit md ɖ cuṛnt gret unraṿlñ a p’liticl deʈ fōrtold. It trnz on ɖ îdīa ɖt pǎrd ɖ rj t līv ɖ YY mor ɖn eni uɖr: cōl it ɖ sovṛnti dluźn.
Ɖ līvrz’ slogn, “Tec bac cntrol”, rjd Brítnz t śec of ɖ cnstrents v Bruslz n bcm a prǎd, soṿrin neśn wns mor – a neśn ɖt, alon, wd dsîd its fet. Aftr Brexit, ɖe promist, Britn wd b ɖ sol mastr v its desṭni, unbrdnd bî ɖ nīd t cnsult or īvn acoṃdet enwn els.
Ɖ ʈri wīcs sins Qarteñ dlivrd hiz mini-bujit hv sìn ɖ śaṭrñ v ɖt dluźn. Fr Trus n hr nǎ xćanslr wr gvn ɖ rūdist v rmîndrz ɖt in ǎr inṭdipndnt wrld ɖr z no sć ʈñ az pyr, untramld sovṛnti. No guvnmnt cn d ẃt ɖ hel it lîcs, hīdlis v uɖrz. In ɖs ces, ɖ rstrent on sovṛnti wz nt ɖ YY: it wz ɖ munimarcits. Bt ɖer vrdict wz az bîndñ az eni Bruslz īdict; in fact it wz mor so. Ɖe ordrd ɖ rmuvl v a ćanslr aftr jst 38 dez in ofis n ɖ canṣleśn v ɖ guvnmnt’s ic̣nomic straṭji. It z ɖ fînanśl marcits ɖt hv tecn bac cntrol.
Nn v ɖz ivnts śd b a s’prîz. Ɖr wr plenti hu wornd ɖs wd hapn, nt līst Trus’z sumr’ponnt, Riśi Sŭnac. Bt Trus n Qarteñ wnt ahd enwe, iśuwñ ɖer procḷmeśnz az f ɖe wr ɖ sol actrz on ɖ stej, oblivịs t ɖ fact ɖt y c’nt jst anǎns £43bn v unfundd taxcuts wɖt ɖoz hūm y xpct t lend y ɖ muni xpresñ a vy – in ɖs ces bî triġrñ an instnt spîc in ɖ cost v borowñ. Y canot simpli bîpas ɖ ofiśl spendñscrūṭnir, ɖ Ofis fr Bujit Rsponsbiḷti, wɖt ɖ marcits cncludñ ɖt y’v bcm unpridictbl n, ɖrfr, unrilaybl, a bad risc.
Az rmenrz wr moct fr pôntñ ǎt six loñ yirz ago, ɖr z no sć ʈñ az unfetrd sovṛnti in ɖ 21st snć̣ri: evri cuntri hz t acoṃdet its nebrz, ɖ globl icoṇmi, riaḷti. Bt ɖ līvrz, n ɖer zeḷs cnvrt Trus, rfyzd t hír it. Ẃn Sŭnac traid t spel ǎt ɖz rūḍmntri facts, Cnsrṿtiv parti membrz ʈt h wz biyñ a spôlsport. Ɖ Treẓ́ri prṃnnt secṛtri, Tom Scolr, wz sìn az ɖ imbodimnt v sć borñ, riaḷti-best ʈncñ, n so Trus fîrd him.
Ɖs wīc Sanje Rāja, ćīf YC icoṇmist v Deutsche Bank, tld a Comnz cmiti ɖt Britn wz fesñ a ynīc form v tredśoc: “W hv’nt sìn ɖs cnd v treddeḟsit sins 1955, sins naśnl acǎntrecordz bgan.” It wz od, bcz I tù hd bn ʈncñ abt ɖ mid-1950z, sṗsificli ɖ Suiz crîsis v 1956. Ɖ fełr v ɖt militri advnćr z nǎ sìn az ɖ momnt ẃn a bucit v cold riaḷti wz ʈroun intu Britn’z fes, a hymilieśn ɖt stript ɖ cuntri v its impirịl dluźnz, forsñ it t axpt ɖt it wz no longr a globl sūṗpǎr ɖt cd act alon. Fr a ẃl, Britn lrnt ɖt lésn: jst fîv yirz aftr Suiz, ɖ cuntri wz nocñ on Yṛp’s dor, ascñ t jôn ɖ club.
Bt sm, ispeṣ́li in ɖ Cnsrṿtiv parti, nvr śc of ɖ old dluźn. Bî 2016, it wz bac, ɖ Tōriz hî on Brexit tōc v a globl Britn wns agn sêlñ ɖ wrld’z ośnz, fri v ɖ cnstrenñ hand v ɖ YY, redi t rtrn t its rîtfl granjr. Ɖ Tōriz hv bn briɖñ ɖoz fymz fr six yirz, n ɖ Trus-Qarteñ mini-bujit wz ɖ rzult: ɖ Suiz v ic̣nomic poḷsi, a dzastṛs act v imajind impirịl sovṛnti.
Az sevṛl icoṇmists hv notd, Trus wz actñ az f Britn wr ɖ YS, iśụr v ɖ wrld’z rzrvcuṛnsi, wɖ marcits fōlñ ovr ɖmslvz t lend it muni. Lîc Ánṭni Īdn bfr hr, ś cd nt axpt ɖt Britn’z ples z nt ẃt it wz: it cn nvr b soṿrin lîc a cñ in a fẹritêl, ebl t bnd ɖ wrld t hiz wl. Ɖt cnd v sovṛnti wz olwz a fanṭsi, wn ɖt bʈ féd Brexit n wz féd bî it.
Nǎ ś hz hd t mc a cnseśn t riaḷti, leyñ dǎn ɖ p’liticl lîf v hr frend n abandnñ ẃt hd bn a sigṇćrpoḷsi. Ś z nt in ćarj v ivnts; ś z nt īvn in ćarj v hr ǒn guvnmnt. Jeṛmi Hunt wz an apôntmnt forst on hr. Hr dmīnr in hr afṭnunpresconfṛns on Frîde – śel-śoct, britl – sjstd ś hz nt abzorbd ɖ fl mīnñ v ẃt hz jst hapnd.
Ś z finiśt, a holo husc v a prîm̦inistr. Bt ɖs z bigr ɖn ɖt. Ɖ Brexit bubl hz brst. Ɖ cuntri hz sìn ɖt ɖ Tori hlūṣneśn v an îḷnd ebl t cmand ɖ tîdz wz no mor ɖn a fīvrdrīm, n a denjṛs wn at ɖt. W cn pṛnǎns Trusonomics ded. Brñ on ɖ de w cn se ɖ sem v ɖ dluźn ɖt spōnd it.
