Az ɖ barāź v bad nyz fṛm plesz lîc Grīs cntinyz, ol w cn b srtn v z ɖr r mni s’prîzz layñ ahd
Transcription of a Guardian article of 25 July 2023
Ẃt frîtnz m abt ɖ clîṃt crîsis z w d’nt nǒ hǎ bad ʈñz riyli r
Wnzde, 19 Jlî 2023
Ovr ɖ past fy decedz, clîṃtsayntists hv md hyj strîdz in unḍstandñ ɖ fyćr clîṃt. Bt aftr rīsnt wīcs v xtrim hīt n devstetñ fludz it’s clir ɖt, olɖo clîṃtmodlz hv pṛvîdd gd inḟmeśn abt oṿol rîzñ tmpṛćrz, ɖe c’nt b śr ẃt levl v dstrux́n ć noć on ɖ ʈmomitr wl brñ.
Clîṃtmoḍlñ z xtrimli complex, bt its funḍmntlz rlî on besic fizics – X tunz v imiśnz wl brñ Y incris in tmpṛćr, wɖ sm errbarz. Sūṗcmpytrz hv bn ebl t factr in śifts in land ys ɖt wl ćenj ɖ reflectiṿti v ɖ Rʈ’z srfis. Impruvd tmpṛćŗecordz hlpt veṛfî ɖer fîndñz.
Bt lêtli, līdñ rsrćrz hv md a penfl cnfeśn: īvn ɖer most sfisṭcetd modlz c’nt yt fōrsi xacli hǎ Rʈ sistmz wl rspond t ɖoz hayr tmpṛćrz.
Ɖ influenśl Inṭguvnmntl Panl on Clîṃt Ćenj (IPCĆ) sz crancñ p globl tmpṛćr bî haf a dgri wl brñ “mć mor xtrim weɖr, n it cn b mor ofn, mor intns, or xtndd in jreśn” – bt xacli hǎ mć mor, it c’nt prisîsli se.
So, fr instns, w’v olrdi hd a globl tmpṛćŗîz v abt 1.2°S: ɖt’s in lîn wɖ IPCĆ pṛjx́nz. Yt ɖ panl cd’nt worn s abt ɖ apōlñ hītdom ɖt’s bn sirñ Norʈ America. I c’nt fînd hītdomz mnśnd in ɖ bîbl v clîṃtćenj, ɖ IPCĆ rport. Ɖs piriodic rport inevitbli lagz bhnd ny sayns n – undr preśr fṛm sm guvnmnts n inḍstriz, az wel az a dzîr nt t scermungr – its pṛnǎnsmnts tnd t b cnsrṿtiv.
Ɖ modlz olso cd’nt worn s akṛtli abt ɖ imrjns v ɖ hīt trapt dīp in ɖ ośn, ẃć sǒcs p 90% v ɖ wrld’z xes wormʈ. In ɖ 35 yirz I cuvrd ɖ invîrnmnt fr ɖ BBC, I rcōl spekleśn ɖt ɖ wormʈ cd ste dīp fr decedz, phps snć̣riz – nt ɖt sm v it wd sudnli brst p t ɖ srfis of ɖ cǒst v norɖn Britn.
Mejr unsrṭntiz rmen, tù, ovr renfōl. Gd inḟmeśn abt ɖ fyćr v monsūnren wd b a god-snd fr farmrz hu rlî upn it – nt jst in India bt in suɖn Ćîna. Unforćṇtli, gd inḟmeśn on prisiṗteśn z pruvñ a bit trici t fînd.
Ɖ macromodlz olso feld t pṛjct ɖ ifct v cuṛnt eḷvetd tmpṛćrz on îs at bʈ polz. Ɖ formr IPCĆ ćīf, Pṛf. Bob Wotsn, tld m: “I am vri cnsrnd. Nn v ɖ obzrvd ćenjz so far (wɖ a 1.2°S tmpṛćŗîz) r s’prîzñ. Bt ɖe r mor svir ɖn w pridictd 20 yirz ago, n mor svir ɖn ɖ pridix́nz v fîv yirz ago. W probbli unḍesṭmetd ɖ consiqnsz.”
Ɖs z a masiv admiśn. H add: “Sayntists r onli nǎ startñ t unḍstand ɖ rspons v larj îsśīts in Grīnland n Antartica – n it z vri dstrbñ.”
Pṛf. Jen Fransis, d’rectr v ɖ Britiś Antartic Srve, tld m a fy munʈs ago ɖ lêtist sayns on îs-mlt wz “trūli scẹri”.
Wotsn sd at cuṛnt rets ɖ wrld wd olmst srtnli xid ɖ agrìd maximm tmpṛćŗîz v 1.5-2°S. W wd b luci t gt awe wɖ 2.5°S, h sd. Mor lîcli, w’r hedñ twdz 3°S.
Ɖt numbr poztivli frîtnz mni clîṃtsayntists. Bt, az India starts stocpîlñ rîs wɖ a tmpṛćŗîz v 1.2°S, ẃt ysfl advîs cn sayntists ofr fr a 3°S wrld? Jst hǎ bad wl ʈñz b bî ɖen?
Śd hoḷde-mcrz avôd bayñ homz in Grīs? Ćîna z vulnṛbl t xtrīmz – hǎ śd its icoṇmi adapt? Ɖ YS hz cnsidrd itslf les vulnṛbl. Bt tel ɖt t Ny Yorcrz ćocñ on wîldfîr smoc, or ppl in Fīnix trapt undr ɖt hītdom.
Ẃl imīɉt harm t ppl grabz ɖ hedlînz, ẃt’s īvn mor dstructiv cd b ɖ impact v hīt n hymiḍti on fūdpṛdux́n fr an xpandñ popyleśn. A globl śift twdz a plant-best dayt cd hāv ɖ land n wōtr yzd fr agriculćr – n hāv ɖ carbn imiśnz – bt poḷtiśnz fir anġrñ votrz bî rec̣mndñ a daytri śift.
Fesñ ol ɖs glūm mīnz w nīd imaɉnirz az wel az clîṃtoḷjists. Wotsn sd siṿlîześn wl stl xist in ɖ fyćr, bt wɖ mć wrs livñcndiśnz. Bt ẃt sort v a dgredd siṿlîześn mt ɖt b? Bî ɖen w me īvn hv trigrd sm naćṛl tipñpônts ɖt cd rzult in a masiv rlis v trapt mīʈen in ɖ tundra – let’s hop nt.
Ẃt w d nǒ z ɖt so far, ɖ ifcts v hītñ ɖ clîṃt r snr n wrs ɖn mni sayntists pṛjctd (in public at līst). Ɖs hz poḷsi impḷceśnz. Ɖ wrld hz agrìd t cut imiśnz t net ziro bî 2050, bt ɖ YN secṛtrijenṛl, António Guterres, sz rić cuntriz śd b emñ t sqīz ɖ tîmtebl t 2040. Bt ẃt z ɖ ys v a net-ziro poḷsi f it rlîz in part on plantñ triz ɖt me śrivl in fyćr drǎt or cracl in wîldfîr?
T mc matrz wrs, clîṃthītñ z wn ʈñ on a list v hyj invîrnmntl probḷmz – includñ p’lūśn v ɖ er n wōtr, dstrux́n v wîldlîf haḅtats, oṿfiśñ, insectpopyleśn dclînz, los v brdz, plastic p’lūśn, nîtrets, sôļos n mor.
Wotsn sz w d’nt nǒ hǎ ɖz fnomina wl inṭact wɖ ć uɖr, bt h rjz poḷtiśnz t ŕ on ɖ sîd v cōśn, az ɖ stecs r so vri hî. Evri 0.1°S wormñ matrz, sayntists se: 1.5°S z betr ɖn 1.6°S. Ɖt in trn z les bad ɖn 1.7°S.
Az ɖ barāź v bad nyz cntinyz, ol w cn b srtn v z ɖt ɖr r mni clîṃt-s’prîzz layñ ahd v s. Guvnmnts, cumṗniz n indivijlz nīd t rjntli sqīz dǎn imiśnz t insylet ǎrslvz az far az poṣbl fṛm ẃt w me fes.
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Rojr Haṛbin z an eṇji n invîrnmnt aṇlist n a formr BBC corispondnt
