(Transcription of an article published in the Guardian on 15 April 2020)
Fr 11 fetfl dez in Marć, ɖ guvnmnt ignord ɖ bst c’roṇvîṛs advîs. It mst lrn fṛm ɖt mstec
Heḷn Word, Wenzde, 15 Epril 2020
In mid-Febrri a colīg mnśnd ɖt fr ɖ frst tîm in hiz lîf h wz mor cnsrnd ɖn hiz muɖr, hu hd bn reḷtivli blāze abt ɖ riscs v Covid-19. It flt od fr him t b telñ hr t tec cer. W r bʈ pṛfesrz in a dpartmnt v infx́s-dziz eṗdīmioḷji, n w wr wurid.
Tū munʈs on, ɖt añzayti hz nt gn, olɖo it’s olso bn jônd bî a sns v sadnis. It’s nǎ clir ɖt so mni ppl hv daid, n so mni mor r despṛtli il, simpli bcz ǎr poḷtiśnz rfyzd t lisn t n act on advîs. Sayntists lîc s sd loc dǎn rlịr; w sd tst, tres, îṣlet. Bt ɖe dsîdd ɖe ń betr.
Am I biyñ unfer? Ɖ guvnmnt aśurz s ɖt its dsiźnz n tîmñ r best on sayns, az f it z a ńtṛl, valy-fri proses rzultñ in a sṗsific set v instrux́nz. In riaḷti, ɖ sayns arnd c’roṇvîṛs z in its inf̣nsi n dveḷpñ dêli, wɖ rsrćrz acrs ɖ wrld trayñ t unḍstand hǎ ɖ vîṛs spredz, hǎ ɖ bodi rspondz – n hǎ t trīt it n cntrol it. Ɖ spīd at ẃć ǎr nolij hz incrist z impresiv, fṛm ɖ sīqnsñ v ɖ vîṛs in Jańri ʈru t hvñ canddetvaxīnz in rli Febrri.
Maʈ̇maticl modlz r biyñ rfînd t pridict ɖ xtnt n spīd v spred n esṭmet ɖ impact v cntrolmeʈ̇dz. Mî ǒn grūp z studiyñ ɖ rspons v cḿṇtiz, śowñ hǎ ɖ eṗdemic z amplifayñ xistñ sośl iniqoḷtiz. Ppl wɖ ɖ lǒist hǎshold-incm r far les lîcli, bt no les wilñ, t b ebl t wrc fṛm hom or t slf-îṣlet.
Bt ẃl sayntists cari ǎt obẓveśnz n xperimnts, tstñ, iṭretñ n dscuṿrñ ny nolij, it z ɖ rǒl v poḷsi-mcrz t act on ɖ bst aveḷbl evidns. In ɖ contxt v a rapidli growñ ʈret, ɖt mīnz liṣnñ t xprts wɖ xpirịns v rspondñ t prīvịs eṗdemics.
Ẃn I se ɖt poḷtiśnz “rfyzd t lisn”, I am rfŕñ t ɖ advîs n rec̣mndeśnz cmñ fṛm ɖ Wrld Hlʈ Orġnîześn, fṛm Ćîna n fṛm Iṭli. Ɖ WHO advîs, best on decedz v xpirịns n wîdli axptd bî public-hlʈ līdrz n sayntists arnd ɖ wrld wz clir – yz evri poṣbl tūl t s’pres trnzmiśn. Ɖt mnt tstñ n îṣletñ cesz, tresñ n qoṛntīnñ contacts, n rampñ p hîjīn-ef̣ts.
Ɖ YC dd wel in ɖ rli fêz, bt ɖen, on 12 Marć, ɖ guvnmnt alarmd mni public-hlʈ xprts bî abrupli abandnñ cntenmnt n anǎnsñ ɖt cḿṇti cesfîndñ n contacțresñ wd stop. Ɖ em wz no longr t stop ppl gtñ it, bt t slo it dǎn ẃl pṛtctñ ɖ vulnṛbl.
Ɖ evidns unḍpinñ ɖ guvnmnt’s dsiźn apirz in a rport fṛm 9 Marć súṃrîzñ ɖ ptnśl impact v bhevyṛl n sośl inṭvnśnz. Ɖ rport dd nt cnsidr ɖ impact v cesfîndñ n contacțresñ, bt it dd sjst ɖt ɖ bigist impact on cesz n deʈs wd cm fṛm sośl distnsñ n ɖ pṛtx́n v vulnṛbl grūps.
N yt sośl distnsñ wz nt rec̣mndd ɖen. Ɖt de, 12 Marć, aftr hírñ wɖ disḅlif ɖ guvnmnt’nǎnsmnt ɖt dd’nt includ wîdspred sośl distnsñ, I rec̣mndd t mî tīm at Impirịl ɖt ɖe śd wrc fṛm hom fr ɖ fōrsiybl fyćr. Indd, I hv nt bn t mî ofis sins.
Nɖr ɖ advîs nr ɖ sayns wr foloud ɖt wīc. Mî colīgz, léd bî Nìl Frġsn, publiśt a rport on 16 Marć esṭmetñ ɖt wɖt stroñ s’preśn, 250,000 ppl cd dî in ɖ YC. Ɖ guvnmnt rspondd ɖt de wɖ a rec̣mndeśn fr sośl distnsñ, avôdñ pubz n wrcñ fṛm hom f poṣbl. Bt ɖr wz stl no inforsmnt, n it wz left p t indivijlz n imployrz t dsîd ẃt t d. Mni ppl wr wilñ bt unebl t cmplî az w śoud in a rport on 20 Marć. It wz onli on 23 Marć ɖt a mor strinjnt locdǎn n ic̣nomic s’port wz anǎnst.
Btwn 12 n 23 Marć, tnz, f nt hundṛdz v ʈǎzndz, v ppl wl hv bn infctd. Boris Jonsn himslf me wel hv bn infctd ɖt wīc, n hiz ste in ɖ intnsiv-cer ynit me hv bn avôdd f ɖ guvnmnt hd śiftd t rmot wrcñ on 12 Marć. Ɖ cuṛnt bst estiṃt z ɖt arnd 1% v ɖoz infctd wl dî.
So ẃr t nǎ? Wns agn, public-hlʈ xpirịns, includñ moḍlñ, līdz t sm vri clir rec̣mndeśnz. Frst, fînd cesz in ɖ cḿṇti az wel az hospitlz n cerhomz; îṣlet ɖm, n tres ɖer contacts yzñ a combneśn v locl public-hlʈ tīmz n dijitl tūlz.
Secnd, nǒ yr eṗdemic. Trac ɖ eṗdemic naśṇli n loc̣li yzñ NHS, public-hlʈ n dijitl sveḷns t si ẃr cesz r cntinywñ t spred. Ɖs wl b isnśl so ɖt w cn start t lift ɖ locdǎn ẃl śīldñ ɖ popyleśn fṛm hotspots v trnzmiśn. Bild cḿṇti-rziłns bî pṛvîdñ locl s’port fr vulnṛbl ppl afctd bî ɖ vîṛs n ɖ neġtiv impact v ɖ cntrolmeźrz.
Ʈrd, enśur trnzmiśn z s’prest in hospitlz, cerhomz n wrcplesz ʈru ɖ rît pṛtctiv iqipmnt, tstñ, distnsñ n hîjīn. Invstget ɖ dif̣renśl ifcts on blac n mnoṛti eʈnic grūps, n pṛvîd aproprịt pṛtx́n.
Forʈ, enśur ɖt ɖ most vulnṛbl, soṣ́li n medicli, r fŭli pṛtctd ʈru simpl axes t a besic incm, rîts fr mîgṛnts, n sefti fr ɖoz afctd bî dmestic vayḷns.
Mni, includñ ɖ Lebr līdr, Cir Starmr, se ɖt nǎ z nt ɖ tîm fr blem. I am nt lcñ t blem – bt fr scrūṭni so ɖt lésnz cn b lrnt t gîd ǎr rspons. W nīd t avôd frɖr mstecs, n enśur ɖt ɖ guvnmnt z hírñ, n actñ on, ɖ bst advîs.
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