N smtmz it’s hard: ɖ puzl v Brexit, ɖ prisipiṭs dǎnfōl v ɖ Cnsrṿtiv parti. It hlps ɖt fr Americnz stl livñ ʈru ɖ Doṇld Trump sāga, nʈñ z ǎtsd ɖ relm v posbiḷti eni mor. It olso hlps ẃn I xplen t ɖm ɖt ɖoz tū lêtist ćaptrz v Britiś hisṭri r cnctd.

I tel ɖm ɖt fṛm ɖ 2016 reḟrendm onẉd, Brexit incrisñli gev ɖ Tōriz a foc̣s. Nvr mînd ɖt Brexit wz ɖ most dvîsiv ivnt in postwar Britn; ovr tîm, ɖ strugl t mc it hapn yṇfaid ɖ parti. Boris Jonsn’z “Gt Brexit Dn” 2019 ilex́ncampen s’mentd ɖ transfmeśn n, az far az Brexit wnt, sîḷnst Lebr.

Wɖn six wīcs, hvr, ɖ Tori tîd wd trn. Wns Britn forṃli left ɖ YY, ɖ Brexit-impozd diṣplin wɖn ɖ Cnsrṿtiv parti bgan t unravl. Admitidli, ɖ pandemic wd hv ʈroun eni guvnmnt of cors, bt Jonsn’z conduct in ofis dd’nt hlp ɖ Tori brand or parti yṇti. Swomt bî scandl, h wz ǎt. Entr Liz Trus.

Az ɖ YS n ɖ wrld lct on, Trus’z frst wīcs in ofis dd nt xacli rstor confidns in Dǎnñ Strīt. Sudnli, ɖ ny guvnmnt wz średñ ɖ Tōriz’ repyteśn fr fiscl prūdns n sǎnd ic̣nomic manijmnt. Frendz v mîn in ɖ Stets cd bérli b’liv ẃt ɖe wr witṇsñ. Īvn Americnz hu r îdịlojicli opozd t ɖ Cnsrṿtivz wr śoct t si ɖ parti v Ćrćl n Ʈaćr flayñ of ɖ relz.

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Ɖs stori z far fṛm ovr. Fṛm ɖ ǎtset, ɖ riax́n t ɖ ny guvnmnt’s “fiscl ivnt” abrōd wz ōfl. Formr YS Treẓ́risecṛtri Lari Sumrz sd ɖ wrld’z fifʈ-larjist icoṇmi wz “bhevñ a bit lîc an imrjñ marcit”. Prezidnt Bîdn himslf sd ɖt Trus’z orijinl plan wz a “mstec”. Ɖ Inṭnaśnl Munitrifund, ẃć yẓ́li rzrvz its srṃnîzñ fr dveḷpñ icoṇmiz, sd: “w d nt rec̣mnd larj n untarġtd fiscl pac̣jz at ɖs juñćr, az it z importnt ɖt fiscl poḷsi dz nt wrc at crosprṗsz t munitri poḷsi. Frɖrmr, ɖ nećr v ɖ YC meźrz wl lîcli incris iniqoḷti.”Stl, wɖ ol ɖ oprobrịm hīpt on Trus, it’s īzi t fget ɖt ɖ damij bgan loñ bfr ś got hold v Britn’z fînansz. Ẃt’s haṗnñ tde canot b seṗretd fṛm ẃt hapnd in ɖ last deced, līdñ p t Brexit. T xplen ɖoz dez t non-Brítnz, y hv t wêd intu ɖ wīdz v Britiś poḷtics. Ɖr, w cm upn Nîjl F’rāź, hu ɖo nvr ilectd t parḷmnt hd an xtrordnri inflụns on Wsminstr poḷtics. Hd it nt bn fr ɖ ʈret F’rāź n Ycip pozd t ɖ Cnsrṿtiv parti, Devid Camṛn me nvr hv dsîdd t cōl fr a reḟrendm. Bt, fetḟli, h dd.

Az a dyl YS-YC sitizn hu’z livd in Lundn sins 1996, ɖ closist I cd gt t unḍstandñ a raṣ́nal bhnd Brexit wz t si it in ɖ contxt v ẃt Bler wns cōld “post-empîr mleiz” – a veg f dīp-sītd yrnñ t rgen ɖ confidns n śurnis v îdntti ɖt, at līst in ɖ imaɉneśn, wnt hand in hand wɖ runñ an empîr. “Tec bac cntrol” wz śrli part v ɖt, fyld olso bî hîtnd ic̣nomic inṣkṛti in ɖ wec v ɖ 2007-08 fînanśl crîsis n a concmitnt unīz abt iṃgreśn.

Setñ ɖt lojic asd, I hv t se ɖt vrć̣li ol ɖ ic̣nomic arğmnts in fevr v Brexit lct spīśs at bst n sinicli mslidñ at wrst. In ɖt sns, Brexit z a cnd v orijinl sin ɖt sits at ɖ hart v tde’z YC icoṇmi. Ɖt śd hv bn evidnt in ɖ mirịd dîr ic̣nomic fōrcasts blîɖli dsmist az “rmonr” scermunġrñ in ɖ run-up t ɖ 2016 reḟrendm – fōrcasts ɖt trnd ǎt t b mostli akṛt. N it śd hv bn obvịs – az it wz t ɖ rest v ɖ wrld – in ɖ dǎnẉd tṛjectri v ɖ “Brexit pǎnd”, ẃć fél fṛm 1.50 t 1.33 t ɖ dolr oṿnît aftr ɖ 23 Jūn 2016 vot n ultiṃtli hit its lǒist-evr rcordd levl v 1.03 on 26 Sptmbr v ɖs yir.

Biyñ “liḅretd” fṛm ɖ YY wz nvr gwñ t liv p t ɖ cǎnṭfit proṃsz md bî ɖ Vot Līv campen bfr ɖ reḟrendm. Britn’z bordrz r no les pōṛs ɖn ɖe wr. Ɖ post-Brexit treḑīlz ɖ YC hz ngośietd r inṣgnificnt cmperd wɖ ɖ los v its larjist tredñpartnr. Ɖ juwl-in-ɖ-crǎn dīl wɖ ɖ YS z nt īvn on ɖ ajnda, az Trus admitd last munʈ.

Ɖ pandemic, huz arîvl cǒinsîdd wɖ Britn’z dparćr fṛm Yṛp, caṃflaźd mć v ɖ tol Brexit wz inflictñ on ɖ icoṇmi. Bt ɖ harm z riyl. A yir ago, ɖ Ofis fr Bujit Rsponsbiḷti wz esṭmetñ ɖt Brexit’s loñ-trm impact on ic̣nomic groʈ wd b mor ɖn twîs az daṃjñ az ɖt v Covid.

Ɖ ifct on tred hz bn devstetñ. Moḍlñ bî ɖ Sntr fr Yṛpiyn Rform faund ɖt sol̦i bcz v Brexit, Britiś tred in gdz wz dǎn jrñ ɖ frst haf v last yir, renjñ btwn 11 n 16% munʈ t munʈ. “Ɖr z evidns ɖt bizṇsz fes ny n sgnificnt riyl-wrld ćaḷnjz in tredñ wɖ ɖ YY ɖt canot b atribytd t ɖ pandemic,” ɖ Hǎs v Lordz Yṛpiyn-aferz cmiti rportd in Dsmbr.

Endñ ɖ fri muvmnt v lebr btwn Britn n ɖ continnt – a Brexit cornrston – z holowñ ǎt ɖ wrcfors. Acordñ t ɖ Ofis fr Naśnl Sttistics, ɖ numbr v job vec̣nsiz std at 1,246,000 in ɖ ʈrd qortr v ɖs yir, p fṛm abt 823,000 bfr Brexit n Covid-19 set in. Ɖz śorṭjz aflict bizṇsz larj n smōl, fṛm cafez n pubz t farmz n mańfacćrñplants.

Mnẃl, ɖ OBR anaḷsis fṛm Me śoz a numbr v ic̣nomic indcetrz ol gwñ in ɖ roñ d’rex́n: az a rzult v līvñ ɖ YY, loñ-trm prodctivti wl slump bî 4%, bʈ xports n imports wl b arnd 15% lowr in ɖ loñ run, nyli sînd treḑīlz wɖ non-YY cuntriz “wl nt hv a mtirịl impact”, n ɖ guvnmnt’s ny post-Brexit mîgreśn reźīm wl rdys net inwd mîgreśn at a tîm v criticl lebrśorṭjz. It hz bn sm stori t tel.

Ɖr’z a sīn in ɖ Hǎs v Comnz ɖt cīps pleyñ in mî hed. It’s 2019 n Jecb Rīs-Mog, nǎ Trus’z biznișecṛtri, z spīcñ v ɖ “brōd, súnlit upḷndz ɖt awêt s” ʈancs t Brexit. Ɖen I contmplet ẃr Britn z tde: hedñ intu a pṛtractd rseśn undr an infībld prîm̦inistr līdñ a wūndd, frax́s parti. I hop I’m pruvd roñ, n ɖoz súnlit upḷndz r ǎt ɖr ovr ɖ hrîzn. No sîn az yt. Bt I’d b plizd t cm bac n tel evrwn hu hz lisnd so far ɖt I wz mstecn.

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