Ɖ Gardịn vy on mas unimplômnt: infleśn wl drop wɖt ɖs pen
(Transcription of a Guardian editorial of 15 Nov. 2022)
Poḷsi mcrz r roñ t ʈnc rîzñ joblisnis n a rseśn r a prîs wrʈ peyñ
Tyzde 15 Nvmbr 2022
Śarpli rezñ sntṛl-banc inṭrestrets mt pruv caṭstrofic, rɖr ɖn jst in’proprịt, az a s’lūśn t ɖ cuṛnt infleṣ́nri invîrnmnt. Ɖt wz ɖ mesij lrcñ in ɖ spīć v wn v ɖ Banc v Ñgḷnd’z munitri-poḷsi mcrz, Silvana Tenreyro, last wīc. It’s hard t dis’gri. Ẃl infleśn z hrtñ ɖ pur dispṛporśṇtli bcz v ɖer lo incmz, rethîcs r a “kr” ɖt z wrs ɖn ɖ dziz.
Ɖ Banc rgardz growñ unimplômnt az a nesṣri tred-of t privnt ɖ axeḷreśn v infleśn. Its sntṛl pṛjx́n fr rîzñ inṭrestrets sjsts olmst 2.5 miłn ppl wd b joblis in 2025 – wɖ ɖ wrst-ces s’nārioz siyñ 3 miłn ǎt v wrc. Ɖs wd līd t wîdspred miẓri. Nbdi wonts t b joblis. Carl Marx’z rzrv armi v ɖ unimploid z fl v conscripts, nt voḷntirz. Mni r olrdi dzrtñ its rancs, prifŕñ t līv ɖ lebrfors intîrli rɖr ɖn b joblis.
Bʈ hayr unimplômnt n hayr infleśn lowr welbiyñ. Ɖ icoṇmist Devid Blanćflǎr śoud in 2014 ɖt unimplômnt mcs ppl mć mor unhapi ɖn infleśn. Evri wn psntijpônt incris in ɖ unimplômntret, h sjstd, lowrd welbiyñ bî mor ɖn fîv tîmz az mć az a wn psntijpônt incris in ɖ infleśnret. Mor rīsnt wrc sjsts ppl sufr “btwn nîn n 13” tîmz ɖ dêli anḡś fṛm unimplômnt ɖn ɖe d fṛm infleśn.
Gvn ɖ YC icoṇmi hz onli jst imrjd fṛm Covid, orc̣stretñ a dīp rseśn z ćilñ. Ɖ Banc z oṗretñ undr a flwd lojic: ɖt ɖ mor it incrisz rets, ɖ mor unimplômnt z pśt p n ɖ qcr infleśn z rdyst. Bt ɖs rleśnśp btwn unimplômnt n infleśn dz nt xist.
It z strîcñ ɖt ɖ cuṛnt lo unimplômntrets r nǎ cnsidrd “unsstenbl” īvn ɖo similr unimplômntrets wr fîn prīpandemic. Fr a deced aftr ɖ 2008 globl fînanśl crîsis, infleśn rmend larjli unrisponsiv t ɖ fōl fṛm 9% t 4% in ɖ YC’z unimplômntret. Riyl pe wz stagnnt. Sć a drop in joblisnis śd hv pṛdyst rapid wejgroʈ. Ɖs dd nt hapn bcz v ẃt ɖ icoṇmist Michał Kalecki dscrîbd az an icoṇmi’z “dgri v mnoṗli”. Ɖs alǎz cumṗniz t limit ɖ abiḷti v wrcrz, cnsymrz n reğletrz t inflụns ɖ marc-up v selñprîsz ovr costs n t dfnd ɖ śer v wejz in ǎtpt. Sins 2008, YC aṿrij marc-ups incrist fṛm 20% t 35%.
Pṛf. Blanćflǎr c’recli fōrcast ɖt in ɖ YS prîsrîzz wd bgin t slo. Ɖ Fedṛl Rzrv wz còt un’werz bî last wīc’s lowr-ɖn-xpctd infleśnrīdñz. Ɖ icoṇmist ʈncs Britn wl probbli folo ɖ sem paʈ. Ɖ bigist drîvr v YC infleśn in Octobr wl b ɖ hayr eṇjiprîs cap. Bt t si ɖs munʈ’z infleśn cīp rîzñ at ɖ sem ret az Sptmbr’z wd rqîr prîsz t jump bî abt 10 tîmz ɖer historicl aṿrij. Ɖt sīmz unlîcli. Disinfleśn z ɖ mor probbl ǎtcm.
Aftr ɖ iniśl blast v hayr eṇjicosts n Covid dsrupśnz fed, ɖr r fy wez fr ɖ infleṣ́nri śoc t proṗget. Wn mec̣nizm wd b frmz marcñ p sstend costćenjz. Wɖ no inṭvnśn t fix prîsz or a comṗtiśn woćdog wɖ tīʈ, Britn z a treźr îḷnd fr frmz t gǎj profits yzñ prîsrîzz. F ɖt z haṗnñ, ɖen ɖ Banc’s inṭrestret hîcs ʈretn t pś ɖ icoṇmi intu rseśn n harm miłnz v ppl – wɖ litl impact on ɖ oṿol infleśnret.
