Tag Archives: IPCC

Fṛm Đ Gardịn: What frightens me about the climate crisis is we don’t know how bad things really are

‘What is the use of a net zero policy if it relies in part on planting trees that may crackle in wildfire?’ Firefighters tackle wildfires on the Greek island of Rhodes, 25 July 2023. Photograph: Graeme Robertson/The Guardian
‘Ẃt z ɖ ys v a net ziro poḷsi f it rlîz in part on plantñ triz ɖt me cracl in wîldfîr?’ Fîrfîtrz tacl wîldfîrz on ɖ Grīc îḷnd v Roudz, 25 Jlî 2023. Foṭgraf: Greym Roḅtsn/Ɖ Gardịn
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Az ɖ barāź v bad nyz fṛm plesz lîc Grīs cntinyz, ol w cn b srtn v z ɖr r mni s’prîzz layñ ahd

Transcription of a Guardian article of 25 July 2023

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Ẃt frîtnz m abt ɖ clîṃt crîsis z w d’nt nǒ hǎ bad ʈñz riyli r

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Roger Harrabin
Rojr Haṛbin

Wnzde, 19 Jlî 2023

Ovr ɖ past fy decedz, clîṃtsayntists hv md hyj strîdz in unḍstandñ ɖ fyćr clîṃt. Bt aftr rīsnt wīcs v xtrim hīt n devstetñ fludz it’s clir ɖt, olɖo clîṃtmodlz hv pṛvîdd gd inḟmeśn abt oṿol rîzñ tmpṛćrz, ɖe c’nt b śr ẃt levl v dstrux́n ć noć on ɖ ʈmomitr wl brñ.

Clîṃtmoḍlñ z xtrimli complex, bt its funḍmntlz rlî on besic fizics – X tunz v imiśnz wl brñ Y incris in tmpṛćr, wɖ sm errbarz. Sūṗcmpytrz hv bn ebl t factr in śifts in land ys ɖt wl ćenj ɖ reflectiṿti v ɖ Rʈ’z srfis. Impruvd tmpṛćŗecordz hlpt veṛfî ɖer fîndñz.

Bt lêtli, līdñ rsrćrz hv md a penfl cnfeśn: īvn ɖer most sfisṭcetd modlz c’nt yt fōrsi xacli hǎ Rʈ sistmz wl rspond t ɖoz hayr tmpṛćrz.

Ɖ influenśl Inṭguvnmntl Panl on Clîṃt Ćenj (IPCĆ) sz crancñ p globl tmpṛćr bî haf a dgri wl brñ “mć mor xtrim weɖr, n it cn b mor ofn, mor intns, or xtndd in jreśn” – bt xacli hǎ mć mor, it c’nt prisîsli se.

So, fr instns, w’v olrdi hd a globl tmpṛćŗîz v abt 1.2°S: ɖt’s in lîn wɖ IPCĆ pṛjx́nz. Yt ɖ panl cd’nt worn s abt ɖ apōlñ hītdom ɖt’s bn sirñ Norʈ America. I c’nt fînd hītdomz mnśnd in ɖ bîbl v clîṃtćenj, ɖ IPCĆ rport. Ɖs piriodic rport inevitbli lagz bhnd ny sayns n – undr preśr fṛm sm guvnmnts n inḍstriz, az wel az a dzîr nt t scermungr – its pṛnǎnsmnts tnd t b cnsrṿtiv.

Ɖ modlz olso cd’nt worn s akṛtli abt ɖ imrjns v ɖ hīt trapt dīp in ɖ ośn, ẃć sǒcs p 90% v ɖ wrld’z xes wormʈ. In ɖ 35 yirz I cuvrd ɖ invîrnmnt fr ɖ BBC, I rcōl spekleśn ɖt ɖ wormʈ cd ste dīp fr decedz, phps snć̣riz – nt ɖt sm v it wd sudnli brst p t ɖ srfis of ɖ cǒst v norɖn Britn.

Mejr unsrṭntiz rmen, tù, ovr renfōl. Gd inḟmeśn abt ɖ fyćr v monsūnren wd b a god-snd fr farmrz hu rlî upn it – nt jst in India bt in suɖn Ćîna. Unforćṇtli, gd inḟmeśn on prisiṗteśn z pruvñ a bit trici t fînd.

Ɖ macromodlz olso feld t pṛjct ɖ ifct v cuṛnt eḷvetd tmpṛćrz on îs at bʈ polz. Ɖ formr IPCĆ ćīf, Pṛf. Bob Wotsn, tld m: “I am vri cnsrnd. Nn v ɖ obzrvd ćenjz so far (wɖ a 1.2°S tmpṛćŗîz) r s’prîzñ. Bt ɖe r mor svir ɖn w pridictd 20 yirz ago, n mor svir ɖn ɖ pridix́nz v fîv yirz ago. W probbli unḍesṭmetd ɖ consiqnsz.”

Ɖs z a masiv admiśn. H add: “Sayntists r onli nǎ startñ t unḍstand ɖ rspons v larj îsśīts in Grīnland n Antartica – n it z vri dstrbñ.”

Pṛf. Jen Fransis, d’rectr v ɖ Britiś Antartic Srve, tld m a fy munʈs ago ɖ lêtist sayns on îs-mlt wz “trūli scẹri”.

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‘The US has considered itself less vulnerable. But tell that to people in Phoenix trapped under that heat dome.’ Photograph: Matt York/AP
‘Ɖ YS hz cnsidrd itslf les vulnṛbl. Bt tel ɖt t ppl in Fīnix trapt undr ɖt hītdom.’ Foṭgraf: Mát Yorc/AP

Wotsn sd at cuṛnt rets ɖ wrld wd olmst srtnli xid ɖ agrìd maximm tmpṛćŗîz v 1.5-2°S. W wd b luci t gt awe wɖ 2.5°S, h sd. Mor lîcli, w’r hedñ twdz 3°S.

Ɖt numbr poztivli frîtnz mni clîṃtsayntists. Bt, az India starts stocpîlñ rîs wɖ a tmpṛćŗîz v 1.2°S, ẃt ysfl advîs cn sayntists ofr fr a 3°S wrld? Jst hǎ bad wl ʈñz b bî ɖen?

Śd hoḷde-mcrz avôd bayñ homz in Grīs? Ćîna z vulnṛbl t xtrīmz – hǎ śd its icoṇmi adapt? Ɖ YS hz cnsidrd itslf les vulnṛbl. Bt tel ɖt t Ny Yorcrz ćocñ on wîldfîr smoc, or ppl in Fīnix trapt undr ɖt hītdom.

Ẃl imīɉt harm t ppl grabz ɖ hedlînz, ẃt’s īvn mor dstructiv cd b ɖ impact v hīt n hymiḍti on fūdpṛdux́n fr an xpandñ popyleśn. A globl śift twdz a plant-best dayt cd hāv ɖ land n wōtr yzd fr agriculćr – n hāv ɖ carbn imiśnz – bt poḷtiśnz fir anġrñ votrz bî rec̣mndñ a daytri śift.

Fesñ ol ɖs glūm mīnz w nīd imaɉnirz az wel az clîṃtoḷjists. Wotsn sd siṿlîześn wl stl xist in ɖ fyćr, bt wɖ mć wrs livñcndiśnz. Bt ẃt sort v a dgredd siṿlîześn mt ɖt b? Bî ɖen w me īvn hv trigrd sm naćṛl tipñpônts ɖt cd rzult in a masiv rlis v trapt mīʈen in ɖ tundra – let’s hop nt.

Ẃt w d nǒ z ɖt so far, ɖ ifcts v hītñ ɖ clîṃt r snr n wrs ɖn mni sayntists pṛjctd (in public at līst). Ɖs hz poḷsi impḷceśnz. Ɖ wrld hz agrìd t cut imiśnz t net ziro bî 2050, bt ɖ YN secṛtrijenṛl, António Guterres, sz rić cuntriz śd b emñ t sqīz ɖ tîmtebl t 2040. Bt ẃt z ɖ ys v a net-ziro poḷsi f it rlîz in part on plantñ triz ɖt me śrivl in fyćr drǎt or cracl in wîldfîr?

T mc matrz wrs, clîṃthītñ z wn ʈñ on a list v hyj invîrnmntl probḷmz – includñ p’lūśn v ɖ er n wōtr, dstrux́n v wîldlîf haḅtats, oṿfiśñ, insectpopyleśn dclînz, los v brdz, plastic p’lūśn, nîtrets, sôļos n mor.

Wotsn sz w d’nt nǒ hǎ ɖz fnomina wl inṭact wɖ ć uɖr, bt h rjz poḷtiśnz t ŕ on ɖ sîd v cōśn, az ɖ stecs r so vri hî. Evri 0.1°S wormñ matrz, sayntists se: 1.5°S z betr ɖn 1.6°S. Ɖt in trn z les bad ɖn 1.7°S.

Az ɖ barāź v bad nyz cntinyz, ol w cn b srtn v z ɖt ɖr r mni clîṃt-s’prîzz layñ ahd v s. Guvnmnts, cumṗniz n indivijlz nīd t rjntli sqīz dǎn imiśnz t insylet ǎrslvz az far az poṣbl fṛm ẃt w me fes.

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Rojr Haṛbin z an eṇji n invîrnmnt aṇlist n a formr BBC corispondnt

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Instroduction to Ñspel

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"House by the Railroad," Edward Hopper, 1925

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In Ñspel: The Guardian view on Europe’s heatwaves: warnings from Hades

A man puts his head in the water to cool off at the fountain in Piazza del Popolo in Rome. Photograph: Tiziana Fabi/AFP/Getty Images
A man pts hiz hed in ɖ wōtr t cūl of at ɖ fǎntn in Piatsa del Popolo in Rom. Foṭgraf: Tiziana Fabi/AFP/Geti Iṃjz
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Ɖ Gardịn vy on Yṛp’s hītwevz: wornñz fṛm Hedīz

Transcription of a Guardian editorial of 18 July 2023

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Sirñ tmpṛćrz fṛm Spen t Grīs unḍlîn ɖt ɖ clîṃt imrjnsi canot b pt on hold ẃl uɖr crîsīz r prîoṛtîzd

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Tyzde, 18 Jlî 2023

Ɖ  weɖrmap v suɖn Yṛp rmenz a dīp, sinistr red, az ɖ hīt sōrz abv 40C in plesz n closr t 50C in Siṣli n Sardińa. In Mdrid, sm nîts r eqtorịl rɖr ɖn tropicl, az ɖ tmpṛćr stez abv 25C. Jūn wz ɖ hotist munʈ rcordd on Rʈ fr 120,000 yirz. Ɖ hotist wīc cem rli ɖs munʈ. “Vri denjṛs loñ-jreśn hīt”, t yz ɖ lanḡj v ɖ rīsnt alrt iśùd bî ɖ YS Naśnl Weɖrsrvis in Aṛzona, sumz p ɖ xpirịns v ɖ last fy wīcs acrs mć v ɖ norɖn heṃsfir. Xtrim hīt, wîldfîrz n fludz r raṿjñ parts v ɖ YS, Caṇda, Jpan, Sǎʈ C’rīa, India n Ćîna.

Globl hītñ z nt ɖ sol xpḷneśn fr ɖ heliś impact v Serḅṛs n Carón, ɖ hītwevz nemd aftr miʈicl deṇznz v Hedīz. Az in 2016 – ɖ hotist yir evr rcordd – an imrjñ El Niño weɖrpatn z hlpñ drîv ɖ b’romitr upwdz. Bt ć tîm ɖs naćṛl n sṗradic ivnt rcŕz, tipicli adñ 0.2C t ɖ aṿrij globl tmpṛćr, it hīts p a planit ɖt z olrdi wormr ɖn bfr az a rzult v grīnhǎs-gas imiśnz.Ɖ hotr ɖ Rʈ gts, ɖ gretr ɖ denjr v fīdbac lūps n unantiṣpetd ivnts. In Yṛp, an istabliśt hî-preśr sistm in ɖ sǎʈ z cuṛntli trapñ ɖ rījn undr a hītdom, n unyẓ́li hî srfis-tmpṛćrz in ɖ Mediṭreńn r hlpñ t loc in ɖ hīt on land. Wɖ Serḅṛs, w hv entrd, acordñ t ɖ Wrld Mītịṛlojicl Orġnîześn, “unćartd teritri”. Az sn az ɖs yir or nxt yir, se sm sayntists, globl tmpṛćrz cd brīć ɖ ol-importnt 1.5C ʈreśhold prîoṛtîzd bî ɖ Inṭguvnmntl Panl on Clîṃtćenj (IPCC). Los v lîf, masmîgreśn, croplosz n sōrñ fūdprîsz az a rzult v xtrim weɖr r olrdi a starc ny riaḷti. Wrs z olmst srtnli t cm.

At an intywtiv levl, w nǒ ɖs. Bt fest wɖ ɖz c’losl n imīɉt ćaḷnjz, Yṛpiyn poḷtics z śowñ alarming sînz v drift. Ɖ afṭmaʈ v ɖ pandemic, ɖ wor in Ycren n ɖ eṇjicrîsis, n ɖ spectr v ic̣nomic rseśn, r cmbînñ t dren m’mntm fṛm net-ziro targits. Last wīc, a cor pìs v ɖ Yṛpiyn Yńn’z grīn dīl wz onli pást bî ɖ narǒist v marjinz, aftr biyñ heṿli wōtrd dǎn. In ci eriaz fr rīćñ clîṃtńtraḷti, sć az trnsport, lîfstîlz n agriculćr, progres z tù slo.

In Jrṃni, Spen, ɖ Neɖrḷndz n elsẃr – az Gordn Brǎn hz notd – ɖ radicl naśṇlist rît z s’xesḟli trnñ ɖ grīn ajnda intu a batlgrǎnd fr its culćrworz. In Britn, it hz bcm dpresñli clir ɖt ɖ clîṃt imrjnsi z nt a prîoṛti fr Riśi Sūnac. Ɖ Lebr parti hz mnẃl rvîzd ɖ tîmtebl v its ptnṣ́li trnsforṃtiv £28bn-a-yir grīn-trnziśn plan.

Aftr so mni IPCC rports, Cop sumit cḿṇcez n p’liticl stetmnts v intnt, ɖ îdīa ɖt ɖz hītwevz cd b cnsidrd a wec-up cōl fr Yṛp’s guvnmnts n popyleśnz sīmz smẃt otioz. Serḅṛs n Carón r sirñ rmîndrz ɖt ɖ clîṃt imrjnsi canot b pt on hold az uɖr crîsīz r adrest. Yṛp z hītñ fastr ɖn eni uɖr continnt, bt its poḷtics z nt cīpñ pes. Tîm riyli z runñ ǎt; pṛgresiv poḷtiśnz nīd t rīdiscuvr ɖ curij v ɖer cnvix́nz n a sns v rjnsi.

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Instroduction to Ñspel

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"House by the Railroad," Edward Hopper, 1925

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Fṛm Đ Gardịn │ We cannot adapt our way out of climate crisis, warns leading scientist

ÑSPEL, FROM THE GUARDIAN, , , ,
Katharine Hayhoe warns that if we continue emitting greenhouse gases no adaptation will be possible. Photograph: Courtesy of Dr Katharine Hayhoe
Caʈrin Hêho wornz ɖt f w cntiny imitñ grīnhǎs gasz no adapteśn wl b poṣbl. Foṭgraf: Crṭsi v Dr Caʈrin Hêho

W canot adapt ǎr we ǎt v clîṃtcrîsis, wornz līdñ sayntist

(Transcription of an editorial published in the Guardian on Wednesday 1 June 2022)

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Caʈrin Hêho sz ɖ wrld z hedñ fr denjrz ppl hv nt sìn in 10,000 yirz v siṿlîześn

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Fiona Harvey

Fiona Harvi, Invîrnmntcorispondnt
Wnzde, 1 Jūn 2022

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Ɖ  wrld canot adapt its we ǎt v ɖ clîṃtcrîsis, n cǎntñ on adapteśn t limit damij z no substtyt fr rjntli cutñ grīnhǎs gasz, a līdñ clîṃtsayntist hz wornd.

Caʈrin Hêho, ćīf sayntist fr ɖ Nećr Cnsrvnsi in ɖ YS n pṛfesr at Texs Téc Yṇvrṣti, sd ɖ wrld wz hedñ fr denjrz unsìn in ɖ 10,000 yirz v hymn siṿlîześn, n eḟts t mc ɖ wrld mor rziłnt wr nīdd bt bî ɖmslvz cd nt sofn ɖ impact inuf.

“Ppl d nt unḍstand ɖ magṇtyd v ẃt z gwñ on,” ś sd. “Ɖs wl b gretr ɖn enʈñ w hv evr sìn in ɖ past. Ɖs wl b unpresdntd. Evri livñ ʈñ wl b afctd.”

Ẃl cuntriz cn start t adapt t sm v ɖ impacts, fr instns wɖ sìwōlz n fludbarịrz, n bî mcñ ɖer infṛstrucćr mor rziłnt t xtrim weɖr, f globl hītñ z alaud t cntiny ɖen ɖ wrld wl rapidli rīć a pônt bynd ẃt cn b adaptd t.

“F w cntiny wɖ biznis-az-yźl grīnhǎs-gas imiśnz, ɖr z no adapteśn ɖt z poṣbl. Y jst c’nt,” ś sd, in an inṭvy wɖ ɖ Gardịn.

Ɖz impacts wd b flt acrs ɖ wrld, ś wornd. “Ǎr infṛstrucćr, wrʈ triłnz v dolrz, bilt ovr decedz, wz bilt fr a planit ɖt no longr xists,” ś sd. Ćenjñ ɖt infṛstrucćr wd cost frɖr triłnz, so alawñ grīnhǎs-gas imiśnz t cntiny t gro wd mīn evŗîzñ impacts n costs.

Ɖ hol v modn lîf wz at stec, ś add. “Hymn siṿlîześn z best on ɖ asumśn v a stebl clîṃt,” ś sd. “Bt w r muvñ far bynd ɖ stebl renj.”

Rlịr ɖs munʈ, Stywt Crc, ɖ hed v rsponsbl invstmnt at ɖ globl banc HŚBC, md hedlînz bî sjstñ ɖt fînanśl insttyśnz śd dscǎnt ɖ riscs v ɖ clîṃtcrîsis az ɖ wrld cd adapt t its impacts. H notd ɖt Amsṭdam wz bilt on land b’lo sì levl, n sjstd ɖt eriaz clîṃtsayntists hv pridictd wd b vulnṛbl t inndeśn, sć az Mîami, cd b similrli adaptd t cǒp wɖ ɖ risc.

“Hu cerz f Mîami z six mītrz undr wōtr in 100 yirz?” h asct an invstrconfṛns. HŚBC muvd qcli t dsǒn Crc’s coments n sspnd him. HŚBC Asetmanijmnt’s ćīf xektiv, Nicolas Moreau, sd Crc’s rmarcs “d nt rflect ɖ vyz v HŚBC Asetmanijmnt nr HŚBC Grūp in eni we”, n riiṭretd ɖ banc’s cmitmnt t rīć net ziro imiśnz bî 2050.

“HŚBC rgardz clîṃtćenj az wn v ɖ most sirịs imrjnsiz fesñ ɖ planit, n z cmitd t s’portñ its custmrz in ɖer trnziśn t net ziro n a ssteṇbl fyćr.”

Hêho, hu hz bn a līd oʈr on YS naśnl clîṃt asesmnts, sd Crc’s coments sīmd t rflect an attyd ɖt wz genñ grǎnd amñ “clîṃt dsmisrz”, hu trî t miṇmîz ɖ levl v risc fṛm clîṃtćenj bî seyñ ɖ impacts wd b maniɉbl.

Hvr, ɖ wrld’z līdñ clîṃtsayntists, ɖ Inṭguvnmntl Panl on Clîṃtćenj, wornd rlịr ɖs yir ɖt cntinyd globl hītñ, bynd 1.5C abv pre-industrịl levlz, wd rīc devsteśn acrs ɖ glob, in ɖ form v fludz, drǎts, hītwevz n uɖr xtrim weɖr, wɖ sweɖz v ɖ planit bcmñ unsūṭbl fr agriculćr n ifctivli uninhabitbl, cōzñ xtrim harm t hymn ssayti in mni plesz.

Hêho sd ɖ IPCĆ fîndñz hd nt bn brōdli unḍstd bî mni ppl. “Ɖs z an unpresdntd xperimnt wɖ ɖ clîṃt,” ś sd.

“Ɖ riaḷti z ɖt w wl nt hv enʈñ left ɖt w valy, f w d nt adres ɖ clîṃtcrîsis.”

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Instroduction to Ñspel

In Ñspel │ The Guardian view on the latest IPCC report: a fast track to climate disaster

ÑSPEL, FROM THE GUARDIAN,
‘Nations and corporations are not just turning a blind eye to a planetary disaster but adding fuel to the flames.’ Photograph: Getty
‘Neśnz n corṗreśnz r nt jst trnñ a blînd î t a planitri dzastr bt adñ fyl t ɖ flemz.’ Foṭgraf: Geti

Ɖ Gardịn vy on ɖ lêtist IPCĆ rport: a fast trac t clîṃt dzastr

(Transcription of an editorial published in the Guardian on Monday 4 April 2022)

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Guvnmnts hv hiɖrtu bn far tù hezitnt t tec on vstd inṭrests n r ol tù redi t pṛtct historic invstmnts in fosil fylz

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Munde 4 Epril 2022

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Ɖ  cntinyd hītñ v ɖ planit mīnz ɖt ɖs yir wl probbli b wn v ɖs snć̣ri’z cūlist. Az ɖ lêtist rport bî ɖ Inṭguvnmntl Panl on Clîṃtćenj (IPCĆ) mcs clir, cuṛnt clîṃtplejz bî guvnmnts wd nt cīp globl hītñ t 1.5C abv priindustrịl levlz – ɖ targit promist in ɖ 2015 Paris agrīmnt. Instd grīnhǎs-gas imiśnz r rîzñ. Jrñ ɖ past deced, on aṿrij ańli ɖe wr at ɖer hîist levlz in hymn hisṭri.

Ɖ wrld z on a paʈwe t tmpṛćr incrisz v mor ɖn 3C in ɖ cmñ decedz. Ɖs wd mc larj parts v ɖ wrld tù hot t wrc in. Svir harvist fełrz wl bcm comn. Dis’pirñ îscaps wd sbmrj mejr sitiz. Guvnmnts hv hiɖrtu bn far tù hezitnt t tec on vstd inṭrests n r ol tù redi t pṛtct historic invstmnts in fosil fylz.

Ɖs canot g on. António Guterres, ɖ YN secṛtri jenṛl, wz rît t se ɖt ɖ wrld “wz on a fast trac t clîṃt dzastr”. Neśnz n corṗreśnz, h candidli sd, r nt jst trnñ a blînd î t a planitri dzastr bt adñ fyl t ɖ flemz. Ɖr z vri litl tîm left t implimnt poḷsiz ɖt pṛmot ɖ nīdd grīnr lîfstîl ćôsz n ćīpr rnywbl s’luśnz ɖt wd jeṇret jobz, eṇjis’kṛti n prîștbiḷti.

T aćiv 1.5C, ɖ wrld mst rdys ańl CO2 imiśnz bî abt 50% bî 2030, n rīć net ziro bî 2050, ẃl rdysñ mīʈen imiśnz a ʈrd bî 2030 n olmst hāvñ ɖm bî 2050. Ɖs wl nīd dīp cuts in fosil-fyl ys. Ɖ IPCĆ sz ɖ ces z unansṛbl fr wîdspred ilectrificeśn – ispeṣ́li crūśl fr ineḅlñ ɖ dīcarḅnîześn v rodtransport, inḍstri, mînñ n mańfacćrñ – pǎrd bî rnywbl sorsz. Ɖ YN’z sayntists argy ɖt eṇji ifiśnsi n consveśn r sntṛl t aćivñ a grīnr, sefr fyćr.

Ɖr r sm s’xeștoriz: at līst 18 cuntriz hv sstend pṛdux́n-best grīnhǎs gas n cnsumśn-best carbndîoxîd-imiśn rdux́nz fr longr ɖn a deced. Mć v ɖ carbn dîoxîd olrdi in ɖ atṃsfir wz rlist bî rić cuntriz ɖt brnd col, ôl n gas t industrịlîz mor ɖn a snć̣ri ago. Ɖ YN panl sd abt 40% v imiśnz sins ɖen cem fṛm Yṛp n Norʈ America. Onli abt 12% cn b atribytd t īst Eźa, includñ Ćîna.

It z in ɖ wlʈiist 10% v hǎsholdz, ẃć cntribyt btwn a ʈrd n 45% v clîṃt-ćenjñ fymz, ẃr ćenj wl hv t hapn fastist. Ɖr r sm qc poḷsiwinz. Betr cropmanijmnt hz an imīɉt pêbac. Solr eṇji n wind eṇji impruv fastr n r adoptd qcr ɖn ńclir or carbncapćr tecnoḷjiz. Dayts hî in plant protīn n lo in mìt n dẹri r asośietd wɖ lowr grīnhǎs-gas imiśnz n r incrisñli popylr.

It z lîcli ɖt globl tmpṛćrz wl “oṿśūt” ɖ 1.5C plejd bî ɖ Paris agrīmnt. Īvn undr wn v ɖ līst bad s’nārioz, ɖ IPCĆ sz ɖt tmprṛli xidñ ɖs limit bî a tîni 0.2C bfr dropñ bac dǎn t abt 1.4C bî ɖ snć̣ri’z end cd stl unlīś irivrsbl impacts sć az ded coṛl rīfs. Ɖ pandemic wz an oṗtyṇti t mc ɖ rapid śift rqîrd awe fṛm fosil fylz n wz míst bî most guvnmnts. Ruśa’z imoṛl wor in Ycren ofrz anɖr ćans fr neśnz cnsrnd abt ovŗlayns on hîdrocarbnz t d ɖ rît ʈñ.

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Fṛm Đ Gardịn: IPCC issues ‘bleakest warning yet’ on impacts of climate breakdown

ÑSPEL, Climate, FROM THE GUARDIAN,
Wildfires tearing through a forest in the Chefchaouen region of northern Morocco. Photograph: Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images
Wîldfîrz tẹrñ ʈru a forist in ɖ Śefśǎén rījn v norɖn Mroco. Foṭgraf: Fadél Sena/AFP/Geti Iṃjz

IPCĆ iśuz ‘blīcist wornñ yt’ on impacts v clîṃt brecdǎn

(Transcription of an article published in the Guardian on 28 February 2022)

Rport sz hymn ax́nz r cōzñ denjṛs dsrupśn, n windo t s’kr a liṿbl fyćr z clozñ

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Fiona Harvey

Fiona Harvi, Invîrnmnt corispondnt, Munde 28 Febrri 2022

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Clîṃt brecdǎn z axeḷretñ rapidli, mni v ɖ impacts wl b mor svir ɖn pridictd n ɖr z onli a naro ćans left v avôdñ its wrst ravjz, ɖ Inṭguvnmntl Panl on Clîṃtćenj (IPCĆ) hz sd.

Īvn at cuṛnt levlz, hymn ax́nz in hītñ ɖ clîṃt r cōzñ denjṛs n wîdspred dsrupśn, ʈreṭnñ devsteśn t sweɖz v ɖ naćṛl wrld n renḍrñ mni eriaz unliṿbl, acordñ t ɖ landmarc rport publiśt on Munde.

“Ɖ sạntific evidns z uniqivcl: clîṃtćenj z a ʈret t hymn welbiyñ n ɖ hlʈ v ɖ planit,” sd Hanz-Oto Pörtner, a co-ćer v wrcñgrūp 2 v ɖ IPCĆ. “Eni frɖr dle in cnsrtd globl ax́n wl mis a brīf n rapidli clozñ windo t s’kr a liṿbl fyćr.”

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Drǎts, fludz, hītwevz

In ẃt sm sayntists trmd “ɖ blīcist wornñ yt”, ɖ súṃri rport fṛm ɖ globl oʈoṛti on clîṃtsayns sz drǎts, fludz, hītwevz n uɖr xtrim weɖr r axeḷretñ n rīcñ incrisñ damij.

Alawñ globl tmpṛćrz t incris bî mor ɖn 1.5S abv priindustrịl levlz, az lcs lîcli on cuṛnt trendz in grīnhǎs-gas imiśnz, wd rzult in sm “irivrsbl” impacts. Ɖz includ ɖ mltñ v îscaps n gleśrz, n a cascedñ ifct ẃr-bî wîldfîrz, ɖ dî-of v triz, ɖ drayñ v pītlandz n ɖ ʈw̃ v prṃfrost rlis adiśnl carbn imiśnz, ampḷfayñ ɖ wormñ frɖr.
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‘Atḷs v hymn suḟrñ’

António Guterres, ɖ YN secṛtri jenṛl, sd: “I hv sìn mni sạntific rports in mî tîm, bt nʈñ lîc ɖs. Tde’z IPCĆ rport z an atḷs v hymn suḟrñ n a dámñ indîtmnt v feld clîṃtlīdrśp.”

Jon Ceri, ɖ YS speśl preẓdnśl envô fr clîṃt, sd ɖ rport “pents a dîr picćr v ɖ impacts olrdi ocŕñ bcz v a wormr wrld n ɖ teṛbl riscs t ǎr planit f w cntiny t ignor sayns. W hv sìn ɖ incris in clîṃt-fyld xtrim ivnts, n ɖ damij ɖt z left bhnd – lîvz lost n lîvlihdz ruind. Ɖ qsćn at ɖs pônt z nt ẃɖr w cn oltgɖr avôd ɖ crîsis – it z ẃɖr w cn avôd ɖ wrst consiqnsz.”
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Ɖ rport sz:

  • Evrẃr z afctd, wɖ no inhaḅtd rījn iscepñ dîr impacts fṛm rîzñ tmpṛćrz n incrisñli xtrim weɖr.
  • Abt haf ɖ globl popyleśn – btwn 3.3 biłn n 3.6 biłn ppl – liv in eriaz “hîli vulnṛbl” t clîṃtćenj.
  • Miłnz v ppl fes fūd n wōtr śorṭjz owñ t clîṃtćenj, īvn at cuṛnt levlz v hītñ.
  • Mas dî-offs v spīśīz, fṛm triz t coṛlz, r olrdi undr we.
  • 1.5S abv priindustrịl levlz consttyts a “criticl levl” bynd ẃć ɖ impacts v ɖ clîṃtcrîsis axeḷret stroñli n sm bcm irivrsbl.
  • Costl eriaz arnd ɖ glob, n smōl, lo-layñ îḷndz, fes inndeśn at tmpṛćŗîzz v mor ɖn 1.5S.
  • Ci īcosistmz r luzñ ɖer abiḷti t abzorb carbndîoxîd, trnñ ɖm fṛm carbn sncs t carbnsorsz.
  • Sm cuntriz hv agrìd t cnsrv 30% v ɖ Rʈ’s land, bt cnsrvñ haf me b nesṣri t rstor ɖ abiḷti v naćṛl īcosistmz t cǒp wɖ ɖ damij rīct on ɖm.
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Ćans t avôd ɖ wrst

Ɖs z ɖ secnd part v ɖ IPCĆ’z lêtist asesmnt rport, an updetd, comprihnsiv rvy v globl nolij v ɖ clîṃt, ẃć hz bn sevn yirz in ɖ mcñ n drwz on ɖ pir-rvyd wrc v ʈǎzndz v sayntists. Ɖ asesmnt rport z ɖ sixʈ sins ɖ IPCĆ wz frst cnvind bî ɖ YN in 1988, n me b ɖ last t b publiśt ẃl ɖr z stl sm ćans v avôdñ ɖ wrst.

A frst instōlmnt, bî ɖ IPCĆ’z wrcñgrūp 1, publiśt last Ōġst, on ɖ fizicl sayns v clîṃtćenj, sd ɖ clîṃtcrîsis wz “uniqivcli” cōzd bî hymn ax́nz, rzultñ in ćenjz ɖt wr “unpresdntd”, wɖ sm bcmñ “irivrsbl”.

Ɖs secnd part, bî wrcñgrūp 2, dīlz wɖ ɖ impacts v clîṃt brecdǎn, sets ǎt eriaz ẃr ɖ wrld z most vulnṛbl, n dītelz hǎ w cn trî t adapt n pṛtct agnst sm v ɖ impacts. A ʈrd sx́n, dy in Epril, wl cuvr wez t cut grīnhǎs-gas imiśnz, n ɖ fînl part, in Octobr, wl súṃrîz ɖz lésnz fr guvnmnts mītñ in Ījipt fr ɖ YN Cop27 clîṃtsumit.

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‘Caṭclizmic’ fr smōl îḷndz

Smōl îḷndz wl b amñ ɖoz wrst afctd. Woltn Websn, an ambasdr v Antīga n Barbūda n ɖ ćer v ɖ Alayns v Smōl-Îḷnd Stets, cōld ɖ fîndñz “caṭclizmic”.

H rjd ɖ YN t cnvin a speśl seśn t cnsidr ax́n. “W r cntinywñ t hed fr a preṣpis – w se ǎr îz r opn t ɖ riscs, bt ẃn y lc at globl imiśnz, f enʈñ w r axeḷretñ twdz ɖ clif éj. W r nt siyñ ɖ ax́n fṛm ɖ big imitrz ɖt z rqîrd t gt imiśnz dǎn in ɖs criticl deced – ɖs mīnz hāvñ imiśnz bî 2030 at ɖ lêtist. It z clir ɖt tîm z slipñ awe fṛm s.”

Guvnmnts in uɖr parts v ɖ wrld cd hlp ɖer ppl t adapt t sm v ɖ impacts v ɖ clîṃtcrîsis, ɖ rport sz, bî bildñ flud dfnsz, hlpñ farmrz t gro difṛnt crops, or bildñ mor rziłnt infṛstrucćr. Bt ɖ oʈrz se ɖ cpaṣti v ɖ wrld t adapt t ɖ impacts wl dminiś rapidli ɖ frɖr tmpṛćrz rîz, qcli rīćñ “hard” limits bynd ẃć adapteśn wd b imposbl.

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‘Globl doṃnoz’

Ɖ clîṃtcrîsis olso hz ɖ pǎr t wrsn probḷmz sć az hungr, il-hlʈ n poṿti, ɖ rport mcs clir. Dev Rei, ɖ d’rectr v Ednbra Clîṃtćenj Insttyt at ɖ Yṇvrṣti v Ednbra, sd: “Lîc tecñ a recñbōl t a set v globl doṃnoz, clîṃtćenj in ɖ 21st snć̣ri ʈretnz t dstrô ɖ fǎndeśnz v fūd n wōtr s’kṛti, smaś onẉdz ʈru ɖ frajîl strucćrz v hymn n īcosistm hlʈ, n ultiṃtli śec ɖ vri pilrz v hymn siṿlîześn.”

Ɖ rport plez dǎn firz v conflicts arîzñ fṛm ɖ clîṃtcrîsis, fîndñ ɖt “dsplesmnt” n “invoḷntri mîgreśn” v ppl wd insy bt ɖt “nonclimatic factrz r ɖ dominnt drîvrz v xistñ intṛstet vayḷnt conflicts”.

Bt Jefri Kargel, a sīńr sayntist at ɖ Planitri-Sayns Insttyt in ɖ YS, sd: “Ɖ cuṛnt worfér activti in īstn Yṛp, ɖo nt atribytbl t clîṃtćenj, z a frɖr cōśn abt hǎ hymn tnśnz n inṭnaśnl rleśnz n jiopoḷtics cd bcm inflemd az clîṃtćenj impacts hit neśnz in wez ɖt ɖe r il-priperd t handl.”

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