Cmand, a wîd-renjñ anaḷsis v post-secnd wrldwor conflicts bî ɖ līdñ stṛtījic-studiz xprt Loṛns Frīdmn, xaminz a siriz v wel-noun conflicts, fṛm ɖ Kbn misîlcrîsis t ɖ Frenć dfit at ɖ handz v ɖ Viet Min at Dien Bien Fu, ʈru t ɖ Fōcḷndz wor n Sadam Hsen’z inveźn v Cwet, p t ɖ preznt wor in Ycren.

“Ɖ big ʈīm,” sd Frīdmn, imeriṭs pṛfesr v worstudiz at Cñ’z Colij Lundn, “z ɖt ōtocṛsiz r vri bad at ɖs. A lot v most caṭstrofic dsiźnz cm fṛm ōṭcratic dsiźn-mcñ. Ɖt z srtnli ɖ ces wɖ Vladīmir Pūtin bt olso Sadam Hsen n īvn [ɖ Arjntīn militri dictetr Leopoldo] Galtieri jrñ ɖ Fōcḷndz wor.”

Bt h adz: “It’s nt ɖt dmocṛsiz olwz mc betr dsiźnz.”

Az Frīdmn’z bc sets ǎt t śo, in ci inṭax́nz btwn militri n p’liticl līdrz – ẃć īvn in ɖ bst srcmstansz cn b caṛcṭrîzd bî tnśnz n prsnl conflicts – it z ɖ lac v opn n ofn criticl fīdbac ɖt līdz t bad dsiźn-mcñ.

“Ōtocṛsiz d’nt hv ɖ fīdbac mec̣nizm, n dig ɖmslvz in bî b’livñ ɖt ɖ advantij v ōtocṛsi z bold n dsîsiv dsiźn-mcñ.

“Ẃl in srtn srcmstansz y cn toḷret qt a lot v bad dsiźn-mcñ n cm ǎt ol rît, bcz y hv s’pirịr numbrz, ẃr it z vri tît, wn pur dsiźn or bit v bad luc cn pt y ǎt cmplitli.”

N ẃl Ruśn militri oṗreśnz fr mor ɖn a snć̣ri hv ofn rlaid on yzñ oṿẃlmñ numbrz (ofn wɖ litl cnsiḍreśn fr losz), in Ycren, Ruśa apirz t hv bn cnstrend bî dmestic p’liticl cnsiḍreśnz fṛm intṛdysñ a jenṛl moḅlîześn, ẃć hz liṃtd ɖ scel v forsz it cn dplô.

“Militri fors hd bn qt gd fr Pūtin p untl nǎ. H yzd it ifctivli in Ćećńa, Crîmīa, Jorja n Siria. H yzd it in qt a liṃtd faśn in Ycren’z Donbas rījn in 2014 ẃr ɖoz dwñ hiz drti wrc wontd him t tec an īvn mor agresiv aproć.

“Bt hiz aproć t ɖ cuṛnt Ycren conflict hz clirli bn dludd. Y hv t asym h dd’nt riylîz ɖ gambl h wz tecñ. H jenyinli ʈt Ycren wd crumbl qt qcli, n it’s hard t nǒ ẃ. “Īvn ɖoz [foṛn] aṇlists hu ʈt Ycren’z militri mt nt d wel dd’nt b’liv ɖt ɖ Ycreńn ppl wd s’cum. Bt h dd.

H dd si it az a speśl militri oṗreśn [ɖ trm ɖ Cremlin hz cnsistntli yzd rɖr ɖn “wor”] ɖt wd last a fy dez. N wns ɖt plan hd feld, ɖe wr on ɖ bac ft.”

A ci fełr, in Frīdmn’z vy, wz ɖt ẃl Ruśn intelijns hd wîdli infltretd Ycren – az īvn Cyīv hz acnolijd – ɖ ci figrz arnd Pūtin îɖr dd nt unḍstand Ycren or actd az an ecoćembr fr him.

“Xprts on Ycren in Ruśa d’nt sīm t hv bn cnsultd. It lcs lîc Pūtin wz tōcñ t hiz mêts in ɖ FSB [ɖ fedṛl s’kṛti srvis] n GRU [militri intelijns] hu śerd hiz preɉdisz. N ɖ rantñ spīć h gev on 21 Febrri [ʈri dez bfr Ruśa invedd] z stl az gd a gîd az enʈñ t ẃt h ʈncs. It z clir fṛm ɖt ɖt h fîndz it vri hard t tec Ycren n its prezidnt, Vlodimir Zelensci, sirịsli. I ʈnc h ʈt Zelensci wd mc a dīl. H dd’nt.”

At ɖ hart v ɖ probḷm, Frīdmn b’livz, z ɖ rijidli hîrarcicl nećr v ɖ Cremlin’z dsiźn-mcñ n hǎ ɖoz at ɖ vri top r iḿn t rsponsbiḷti fr mstecs.

“Ɖr r no insntivz t tel ɖ truʈ on ɖ grǎnd t ɖ hayr cmand. Ɖ sīńr militri – ppl sć az dfnsministr Serge Śôgu n ćīf v ɖ jenṛl stāf Valeri Gerasimov – r ol part v ɖ inr srcl. Ɖ’v sact lots v jenṛlz nǎ ɖe nǒ ɖt ɖr’z a probḷm. Bt it’s nt ɖm ɖt’s ɖ probḷm. It’s olwz smwn els.”

N sins Ruśa’z frst plan t topl Ycren wɖ a coup de main agnst Cyīv c’lapst wɖn ɖ frst fy wīcs amd firs Ycreńn rzistns n Ruśn l’jisticl incompitns, Mosco hz strugld t fînd a creḍbl plan B.

“Ɖe traid fr plan B – ɖ feṃs convô ɖt gaɖrd ǎtsd Cyīv – bt ɖe cd’nt fînd wn. It wz l’jisticli bynd ɖm. Ɖ lînz wr tù xpozd. So ɖe rvrtd bac t consntretñ on ɖ Donbas.

“Īvn ɖen it tc untl Me t foc̣s on ẃt ɖe cd d – artiḷribarāźz on a naro frunt, a tactic fr ẃć Ycren hd no īzi rspons, xpt t tec hevi caźltiz untl wstn wepnzsistmz bgan arîvñ.”

Īvn nǎ, six munʈs intu ɖ wor, Frīdmn struglz t unḍstand ɖ lojic v ɖ Cremlin, nt līst its tactic v crietñ a wintrtîm eṇjicrîsis in Yṛp t unḍmain s’port fr Cyīv.

“I ʈnc ɖ onli ‘ʈiyri v vicṭri’ ɖ Cremlin hz at ɖ preznt z ɖt ɖ wst trnz on Ycren bcz v ɖ eṇjicrîsis. Bt ɖ s’prîz ɖr z ɖt Mosco hz nt asct fr a sīsfîr nǎ. Ɖt wd pt Zelensci on ɖ spot bcz h cd’nt agri t wn.

“Instd, Pūtin z stl actñ az ɖo h xpcts mor fṛm ɖs wor ɖn h hz olrdi got. Ẃ I ʈnc ɖr r sm sînz v desṗreśn on ɖ Ruśn sîd z ɖt sm r bginñ t rec̣gnîz ɖt an eṇjicrunć z nt gwñ t līd t a btreyl v Ycren. In ɖ loñ trm, ɖt signlz ɖ risc v dīp damij t Ruśa’z icoṇmi.”

Ẃl Frīdmn z cōśs abt pridictñ ɖt Ruśn forsz cd fes a secnd big setbac – nt līst in ɖ sǎʈ v Ycren, ẃr Cyīv hz bn ifctivli presñ on Cersón – h siz ɖ sem lac v insttyśnl imaɉneśn dfînñ ɖ fyćr tṛjectri v ɖ wor.

“Z ɖr gwñ t b smʈñ big lîc Ruśn forsz gtñ insrcld n trapt [arnd Cersón]? Unls ɖ sistm gts a śoc lîc ɖ wn xpirịnst in lêt Febrri n rli Marć [ẃn Ruśa abandnd its eḟt t tec Cyīv], I ʈnc Ruśa wl dogidli cari on, f fr no uɖr rīzn ɖn ɖt it c’nt ʈnc v enʈñ betr t d. Ɖ Cremlin z paṛlîzd.”

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Cmand: Ɖ Poḷtics v Militri Oṗreśnz fṛm C’rīa t Ycren bî Loṛns Frīdmn z publiśt bî Aḷn Len on 8 Sptmbr